Friday, July 3, 2015

1913. Discussion: Emissions Tax, The Climate Movement, and Radical Social Change

By Kamran Nayeri, July 3, 2015
Portion of the crowd in the Oakland, California, climate rally, September 2014
In “The Climate Movement Should Demand: ‘Tax Greenhouse Gases Emissions With Subsidies for Low-Income People’” (June 26, 2015), a proposal for discussion and adoption by climate activists, I anticipated opposition to it.  In particular, I anticipated opposition from socialist or ecosocialist individuals and groups who make an educational slogan, “System Change, Not Climate Change,” into a policy proposal. 

The day after I posted my proposal on Our Place in the World James Plested published “Climate Change Cannot Be Addressed Without Breaking From Capitalism” in the REDFLAG, the voice of Socialist Alternative of Australia.  As the title sums it up Plested argues that it is impossible to stop catastrophic climate change without breaking with capitalism. He concludes that instead of building the climate movement one must build the labor and socialist movement, in particular, I suppose the Socialist Alternative in Australia.  

On the same day, Jonathan Rutherford (coincidently also from Australia) posted a comment under my proposal on Our Place in the World (see the third comment) in which he argues climate change is not a central problem facing humanity, it is just one of many problems we face. Addressing me, he writes:  
“You obviously don't see our predicament like I do. Part of the problem, I guess, is that I don't see climate change as THE issue. Its just one more problem, among many others, that the system is generating. Even if we could solve that one - plug one hole - other leaks would probably bring the system down (or, in any case, should lead us to reject it).” [emphasis in the original]
Thus, like Plested, Rutherford proposes his own vision of a post-capitalist society as the way forward instead of building the climate movement.  

Let us note that Plested and Rutherford start from diametrically opposed starting points but arrive at a similar conclusion—that is, abstaining from the climate movement.  The reason is that they employ the same approach to politics, to substitute their own utopia for actually living mass movement that is going on before our very eyes.  What matters to them is not the real movement but their own utopia. In my 44 years as a political activist, I have seen many manifestations of the same abstentionist approach to mass movements. It requires a discussion. But before I get to it let’s dispose of  Rutherford’s assessment of climate change as  “just one more problem, among many others, that the system is generating.”

Why have millions mobilized across the world to stop climate change? 
Rutherford does not bother to ask himself why then is it that millions across the world have mobilized to stop climate change.  The answer is well known to anyone who has paid attention. Climate change is an existential threat at least for the large part of humanity that live in the Global South and many low-income working people in the Global North.  It is an existential problem for untold number of species as it is a driver for the Sixth Mass Extinction. It is also causing ocean acidification.  

There are many sources from academic and policy research organizations as well as the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that have provided facts and sciences of  the escalating threat posed by climate change.  Let me quote the February 2015 report from the Global Challenges Foundation that places climate change as the top threat to humanity among twelve threats its cites: 
“Feedback loops could mean global average temperatures increase by 4°C or even 6°C over pre-industrial levels. Feedbacks could be the release of methane from permafrost or the dieback of the Amazon rainforest. The impact of global warming would be strongest in poorer countries, which could become completely uninhabitable for the highest range of warming.
“Mass deaths and famines, social collapse and mass migration are certainly possible in this scenario. Combined with shocks to the agriculture and biosphere-dependent industries of the more developed countries, this could lead to global conflict and possibly civilisation collapse. Further evidence of the risk comes from signs that past civilisation collapses have been driven by climate change.”
A few months before that the IPCC  Synthesis Report (November 2, 2014) puts it is a more diplomatic language. “If left unchecked, climate change will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.” (IPCC news release) 

The recently completed Lancet Commission Report on Climate Change concludes that climate change can erase public health gains of the past 50 years. 

Also, It is well known the global warming is the driver for ocean acidification and climate change is a key driver for species extinction and loss of biodiversity, both cited as other top threats to humanity.  On June 19, 2015, a report published in Science Advances by a team of scientists confirmed the onset of the Sixth Great Extinction and warned that it is a threat to human existence.

Just today, a team of scientists published a research report in Science (July 3, 2015) that warns “that our window of opportunity to save the oceans from major changes is in danger of slamming shut, bringing with it the risk that we will encounter planetary-scale tipping points in the behaviour of the climate.”  (Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, “Climate Change: The Window of Opportunity in Saving Oceans Is Closing Fast”). 

Mass movement is where revolutionary politics can unfold
So, Rutherford’s denial of the existential threat posed by global warming and impending catastrophic climate change as “just one more problem, among many others” has no basis in fact or science and, frankly, it is odd coming from a leftist.  

In fact, a gradual recognition of the centrality of impending catastrophic climate change has served as the basis of a growing climate justice movement around the world.  Unsurprisingly, the environmentalist movement has taken the lead in organizing protests demanding governmental action to mitigate climate change before it is too late.  Unlike some other problems “the system” generates, climate change can become self-sustaining through natural feedback loops—like release of methane with melting of permafrost or dying off of the Amazon tropical forest.  Just last September 12 (2014) some 400,000 people marched in New York City to demand governmental action as world leaders converged to discuss the issue. On the same weekend, 2,807 actions with the same message took place in 166 countries.   

In my assessment of the New York march (see, “People’s Climate March Was a Huge Success; What to Do Next?”) I supported the organizers’ strategy of ensuring broadest mobilization from across the political spectrum by focusing on the demand on governments, in particular the American government, to take immediate and effective action to stop and reverse climate change.  In the same assessment, I criticized the organizers of a small march on Wall Street that wanted to “escalate” the movement by mobilizing anti-capitalist forces to disrupt Wall Street. That march attracted only 3,000 people (less than one percent of the main march that had about 400,000 participants) and was immediately mired in fight with the police  (for an excellent critique of this ultra-leftist approach to the People’s Climate March see Jonathan Smucker's and Michael Premo’s “What’s Wrong With the Radical Critique of the People’s Climate March”).

On the occasion of the UN COP21 meeting in Paris November 30-December 11, the climate movement is organizing protest marches leading up to this event in many cities across the world as well as in Paris.  The question for any radical social change activist and organization is this: will you help build these protest actions?

Politics of sitting outside the mass movement
Unfortunately, both Plested and Rutherford have choosen political abstentionism towards the climate movement.  Plested who understands the centrality of the climate change would not help build the climate movement because he argues it can never stop climate change as long as world capitalism exist.  He argues that the fossil fuel interests will not give up trillion dollars of proven reserves and national governments benefit from economic growth fostered by fossil fuels will not give up their competitive advantage by accepting policies that can undermine their wealth and power. He concludes:
“No fundamental economic restructure [sic] is possible so long as the capitalist class remains in power. So the struggle for a socialist economy, which is the only basis for dealing with climate change, must be a struggle to strip the rich of their economic, military and political power.”
As a socialist Plested views the working class as the social agency that will strip the capitalist class  of its power and initiate a transition to a socialist society. He argues, however, that historically the working class has shown little interest in environmental issues. Thus, those seeking radical social change should look at other issues— “economic crisis, war, poverty, and so on”—that have historically moved the working class into political action.

However, to stop catastrophic climate change we need to meet two conditions. First, effective policies must be adopted by at least the top 10 polluters  that are responsible for more than 70% of the world greenhouse emissions: China, U.S., E.U., India, Russian Federation, Indonesia, Brazil, Japan, Canada, and Mexico.  Second, these policies must be adopted fairly soon—scientists differ on their estimates of how much time we have to act to stop the catastrophe, but they agree that the sooner the lesser the averse effects.  It is not unreasonable to say that we have no more than a couple of decades and the time to begin is NOW.  

The question for Plested and all thinking socialists and ecosocialists is this: given the historical record and the world political situation is it realistic to expect the working classes in these nine countries and the European Union to take power from the capitalist class in time to initiate a meaningful climate policy?  Plested, in particular, should consider that despite the worse financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression, despite the most extreme income inequality since the “roaring” 1920s there has been little working class resistance in the capitalist heartland. 

While I have no crystal ball, the world political situation, including the state of the labor, socialist and ecosocialist movements do not give much confidence that revolutions in the capitalist heartland and countries such as China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, and Mexico are around the corner.  

Thus, Plested’s policy conclusion proposing abstaining from a living mass movement to stop climate change in favor of a socialist utopia that does seem far into the future does not seem very alluring.  In fact, if we do not stop catastrophic climate change in due time there may be not much left of humanity to enjoy the coming socialist utopia.

Rutherford’s argument is similar to Plested’s except he upholds his own utopia—The Simpler Way-- which he outlines below:
“The point is we need to be working for a very different kind of society: - one based on a totally new steady state socialised/planned economy, frugal consumption, localised/self-reliant settlements, participatory democracy new cooperative cultures etc. I know this is scary and hard to imagine. I struggle with it every day of my life. But I am convinced that something like this is what we must have the courage to grope towards…” 
I am uncertain why Rutherford finds working for this utopia scary. I would argue as others have before me (see, Ted Trainer “The Case for Simplicity,” April 2015; Samuel Alexander, “Life in a ‘Degrowth’ Economy, and Why You Might Actually Enjoy It,” October 2014) that something along what Rutherford outlines is not only necessary but desirable (I am an ecosocialist critic of Limits to Growth way of thinking-see, for example, my "Limits of the Limits to Growth Perspective: A Discussion of Saral Sarkar's Explanation of the Great Recession," section 4; for an outline of my own theory of ecological socialism see, "Economics, Socialism, and Ecology: An Critical Outline, Part 2").  

For the purpose of our discussion here, the problem is that by adopting The Simpler Way vision Rutherford disregards the need to engage in real life mass movements, in particular the climate movement, to help build opposition to the capitalist “solutions” and provide alternative that will stop climate change.  In this process, there will be ample opportunity to talk about our utopia with fellow climate activists. If we do not build an effective climate movement there may be no real opportunity to successfully work for any alternative to the capitalist society, The Simpler Way included. 

I do not know how many people turn up in a climate protest actions in Australia, but in Oakland, California, last September there were 4,000-5,000 people and about 400,000 demonstrated in the main event in New York City.  Would you not prefer to be part of these crowds, not an outside agitator, but as a co-builder of the movement and offer your own utopia for discussion by fellow activists—and listen to theirs? 

On coalition politics
At the opening of the first chapter of the Communist Manifesto Marx and Engels declared: “The history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles.” By this they did not mean that all political struggles are class struggle.  In fact, unless the working class has become a self-conscious class and acts in its own interest and the general interest of humanity, the socialist or ecosocialist currents will have to function within mass coalitions together with currents whose political horizons do not pass boundaries of capitalism to fight for immediate and transitional demands while campaigning for their own program and utopia.  In the process, our current gains not only by winning over other revolutionary minded individual or currents but also through learning from the experience and from others.  Learning by doing is an essential part of revolutionary work. 

I do not know what experiences if any Plested and Rutherford have in participating in mass movement of any kind and in particular in building a coalition.  So, allow me to give a sense of how the North California coalition is being built for actions leading to the UN COP21 summit in Paris.  The initial meeting to form the coalition was held a few weeks ago called for by a number of leaders of the September 2014 action at the California Nurses Association offices in Oakland.  That meeting discussed and decided on the set of demands for the coalition they called “Northern California Climate Action Coalition.” (see Appendix for the demands).  

Notice the key central demand: “A global agreement to implement dramatic and rapid reduction on global warming pollution.” The next two demands reinforce this: “Keep Fossil fuels in the ground” and “100% clean, safe, renewable energy!”  Let’s call this Section 1. 

These are followed by ongoing campaigns in California and the United States to stop hydrofracturing (fracking), tar sands mining and pipelines, offshore drilling, arctic drilling, coal exports and “bomb trains” (shipping crude oil by trains). Let’s call this Section 2. 

Finally, the call explains that fighting for these demands will help prepare for “A world united to repair the ravages of climate change,” “A world with an economy that works for people and the planet,” and “A demilitarized world with peace and social justice for everyone;where Black Lives Matter; where good jobs, clean air and healthy communities belong to all.”  Let’s call this Section 3. 

As you may have noticed those who drafted this initial agreement most strongly agree on its central demands in Section 1. Section 2 reflects campaigns various participating groups and individuals are active in or sympathize with most.  Finally, Section 3 includes a merging of utopias or images of a good society participators hold close to their heart.  What the coalition will focus on is the central demand on the U.S. and world governments: “A global agreement to implement dramatic and rapid reduction on global warming pollution.” 

Now, why would any socialist or ecosocialist want to sit outside this coalition except by their own sheer sectarianism? All groups and individuals are at perfect liberty to set up their own literature table at coalition events, distribute their own flier to propose their own specific analysis of climate change and what to do about it and link up these with their own vision of a “good society.” No one is excluded because of their political views as long as they adhere to the key demands and organizational norms of the coalition.  

On the proposal for emissions tax with subsidy to low-income people
My proposal for emissions tax with subsidies to low-income people was developed for individuals and groups who participate in such coalition and in the climate movement.  It is not all that I believe is necessary to save humanity but a set of ideas that I think the movement needs in order to advance at this juncture. Of course, Plested has not read my proposal.  But he is critical of earlier carbon tax proposals as schemes to “avoid any significant impact on business competitiveness, have tended to over-compensate polluters and/or allow for the passing on of costs to income-poor consumers” without citing any specific proposals. But my proposal certainly does not do any such things. It taxes the polluters to the full extent, subsidies low-income people and countries of the Global South that need assistance, and use emissions taxes to support a speedy transition to a low-emission post-carbon economy.  Rutherford views “taxes and reforms” of any kind “appallingly inadequate” because he believes nothing can be done unless his vision of The Simpler Way is well in the process of adoption on a large scale.  He writes: 
“A long way down the track, we will have to try and win power…to carry through the higher level changes…May be taxes might be part of the measures such a [ecosocialist] government might take in the distant future…”
Thus, again he places the cart before the horse—to tackle climate change by taxes or whatever other measures needed, we first need to “take power.” But he admits that will be “a long way down the track.” What if the planet fry before that?  That is apparently none of Rutherford's concern--he lives in his utopia not in real world. 

One would think Rutherford's comment does not address my specific proposal, its context (who it is addressed to and why), none of the facts it marshals, none of its arguments. Why? Because to him it does not matter what I say and why.  The world’s salvation is to adopt The Simpler Way. That is indeed a very simplistic way to thinking about radical social change.  Denounce other people's ideas without addressing them by affirming your own utopia. 

But my argument is simple and easy to understand for anyone with an open mind and a passion for engaging mass movement for social change. While I offer my proposal forcefully I would be happy to listen to all criticism of it and any better alternatives.  My goal is to stop climate change as soon as possible through mass mobilization of millions. 

Here is the gist of what I propose for the climate movement.  First, I argue that we need to go beyond the demand such as “A global agreement to implement dramatic and rapid reduction on global warming pollution.”  The reason is that governments in general, and the U.S. government in particular, are dragging their feet to take meaningful action and when they do take some action it turns out it is either ineffective (such as the Kyoto Protocol) or place certain capitalist interests above those of the climate (such as “cap-and-trade”).  For example, on June 23, 2015, thirteen environmentalist organizations wrote a letter to the White House protesting the Environmental Protection Agency’s plan to substitute biomass fuel in place of coal they want to phase out. This is part of Obama administration's policy of using Clean Air laws to mitigate climate change. 

Meanwhile, time is of essence. The climate movement should not let politicians, bureaucrats, technocrats, and corporations decide on “proper ways” of reducing greenhouse gases.  It is both empowering and necessary for us to decide which approaches have the best chance of success and protect those most vulnerable to climate change in the process.  

My proposal for emissions tax with subsidies to low-income families comes in this context.  It targets all polluters whether those that burn fossil fuels or cut forests or employ land use practices that cause GHGs.  Low-income families and individuals will be protected from higher prices through subsidies.  The tax would also be used for subsidies to speed up transition to a post-carbon economy. 

GHGs emissions should be taxed because for 250 years emitters have polluted the atmosphere without including the cost to the health of the planet and people and not because of the damages thy inflict on the current generations but for future generations as well.  It is also effective as it demonstrated by cigarette tax  in the United States which has resulted in lowering the rate of smoking in the population.  Emissions tax can be calibrated to lower GHG emissions enough to stop and reverse climate change in a reasonable time frame.

I have also drawn attention to the fact that the climate movement must focus on the 9 top countries and the European Union that are responsible for over 70% of the world’s emissions.  The UN meetings give the appearance that the entire 194 countries have to agree on a plan in other to effectively act against climate change.  The idea of the Climate Club is that we can safely focus on a much smaller groups of governments to get results.  Not only we should mobilize millions in China, U.S., E.U., India, Russian Federation, Indonesia, Brazil, Japan, Canada, and Mexico to form a Climate Club by cutting GHGs emission through taxations, we should ask for import tariff on major polluters who do not join the Club by refusing to cut GHGs emissions. Money raised through the tariff should be placed in a Climate Change Assistance Fund to help countries of the Global South that need assistance to cope with climate change and to move to a post-carbon economy.  

Of course, this proposal is only a reform. It will not change the capitalist character of any country or the world economy. However, to fight for taxing lethal levels of greenhouse gases and a victory for the climate movement can help raise more consciousness about the fossil-fuel based capitalist industrial world economy and the need to transition to a socioeconomic system where humanity can live in peace and harmony with itself and with the rest of nature.  I would like to think that would be an ecocentric ecological socialist world with a much smaller human population with a culture of being instead of a culture of having.  One that would live more along the lines of The Simpler Way that Rutherford prefers.  But I would be happy to listen to anyone else’s utopia and to any other proposal to make the climate movement face this historic challenge.   

Appendix

From Call for the Northern California Climate Action Coalition

Challenging climate catastrophe the Northern California Climate Action Coalition demands:

A global agreement to implement dramatic and rapid reduction in global warming pollution

Keep fossil fuels in the ground!

100% clean, safe, renewable energy!

End all fracking, tar sands mining and pipelines, offshore drilling, arctic drilling.
Wind, solar, geothermal power now.
No coal exports or bomb trains in Northern California.

           These are pre-conditions necessary to create:

*     A world united to repair the ravages of climate change
Industrial countries and polluting corporations of the global north need to pay their ecological debt to society and to the global south by providing funding for developing countries and vulnerable communities worldwide to adapt to the impacts of climate change and convert to sustainable economies. 

*     A world with an economy that works for people and the planet
Billions of dollars for conservation and a just transition to a sustainable economy based on renewable energy, clean transportation, and jobs for all at union wages. Convert polluting factory farms to sustainable organic agriculture. End corporate personhood; end "money equals free speech"; end billionaire purchase of elections.


*     A demilitarized world with peace and social justice for everyone; where Black Lives Matter; where good jobs, clean air and water, and healthy communities belong to all
End all forms of oppression and discrimination. No to environmental racism and pollution of indigenous, low-income, and frontline nations and communities. No wars. No nuclear weapons. No more Fukushimas. A true ecological approach must integrate questions of justice to honor the earth and lift all people out of poverty.

1912. Lancet Report: Climate Change Threatens Public Health Gains of the Past Fifty Years

By Jake Sturmer, ABC.net.au, June 23, 2015
Coal-burning power plant
Climate change poses such a threat to public health it risks undoing the gains of the past 50 years, a major study has found.

The Lancet Commission on climate change and health found the threat had been underestimated, but that tackling it could be a huge opportunity to improve global health.

"The effects of climate change are being felt today, and future projections represent an unacceptably high and potentially catastrophic risk to human health," said the report published in British medical journal The Lancet.

"The direct effects of climate change include increased heat stress, floods, drought, and increased frequency of intense storms, with the indirect threatening population health through adverse changes in air pollution, the spread of disease, food insecurity and under-nutrition, displacement, and mental ill health.”


More than 40 researchers from across Europe and China have spent more than a year compiling the Lancet Commission report, which builds on work done in 2009.

The 2015 edition has identified several significant opportunities to improve human health by tackling climate change.

"Given the potential of climate change to reverse the health gains from economic development... tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of this century," the report said.

"Many mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change are 'no-regret' options, which lead to direct reductions in the burden of ill-health, enhance community resilience, alleviate poverty, and address global inequity.

"Health professionals have worked to protect against health threats, such as tobacco, HIV/AIDS, and polio, and have often confronted powerful entrenched interests in doing so.

"Likewise, they must be leaders in responding to the health threat of climate change."
The report also said: "Many of the 2,200 coal-fired plants currently proposed for construction globally will damage health unless replaced with cleaner energy alternatives. As part of the transition to renewable energy, there will be a cautious transitional role for natural gas.”

Deliberately timed for this year, it is hoped the report will directly influence decision makers ahead of the United Nations climate change conference in Paris in December. It has made 10 recommendations for governments, including the "rapid phase out of coal" to "protect cardiovascular and respiratory health”.

'They come at the report like doctors'
Nobel laureate Professor Peter Doherty said the report assessed the situation from the perspective of health professionals.

"Anything that has an environmental effect will also have a human effect and that's what they emphasise very much in this report," Professor Doherty said.

"They come at the report like doctors, they say well these are the symptoms, we understand the cause and we have to treat the underlying cause.”

The report recommended governments "invest in climate change and public health research, monitoring, and surveillance”.

"[This would] ensure a better understanding of the adaptation needs and the potential health co-benefits of climate mitigation at the local and national level," the report said.
But it is the health impacts of wind farms that has caught the eye of Australia's premier public health research body.

The National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) has allocated $2.5 million to assess the health impacts of wind turbines.

The NHMRC's comprehensive review of wind farms released earlier this year found no consistent evidence that wind farms cause adverse health effects in humans but "given the poor quality of current direct evidence ... high quality research into possible health effects of wind farms ... is warranted”.

Professor Doherty said it was a waste of time and money.

"One of the basic principles of medical research is you don't do research that will have no useful outcome," he said.

"If it goes ahead and like every study that's been done it finds there are no ill health effects — that will convince none of these people so it's a complete waste of money.

"There are wind farms everywhere in Scandinavia... maybe the fact that the ABC and SBS have so many Scandinavian murder programs reflects the bad psychological impact of wind farms, but I don't think anyone's tried to establish that link."

1911. E.P.A. Warns of High Cost of Climate Change

By Coral Davenport, The New York Times, June 22, 2015
Source: E.P.A. report
WASHINGTON — In the absence of global action to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the United States by the end of the century may face up to $180 billion in economic losses because of drought and water shortages, according to a report released Monday by the White House and Environmental Protection Agency.

White House officials said the report, which analyzes the economic costs of a changing climate across 20 sectors of the American economy, is the most comprehensive effort to date to quantify the impacts of global warming.

The report comes as President Obama is trying to build political support both at home and abroad for an ambitious climate change agenda. During the president’s six and a half years in office, the E.P.A. has released a series of regulations and legal decisions aimed at reining in planet-warming greenhouse gases from cars, trucks, power plants and airplanes. Mr. Obama hopes to use those regulations as leverage to broker a United Nations accord in Paris this December that would commit all nations to enacting similar emissions cuts.

“That’s what we’re going to use to push other countries to join in global climate action,” said Brian Deese, Mr. Obama’s senior climate and energy policy adviser.

The report, “Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action,” used existing scientific and economic studies on the projected impacts of unchecked global climate change emissions. It compared those with a future in which global emissions are reduced enough to prevent a rise in average atmospheric temperatures of 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, the point at which, scientists say, the planet will be locked into an irreversible future of rising sea levels, stronger storms, extreme drought, food shortages and other damages.

The report was conducted by the E.P.A.’s Office of Atmospheric Programs along with researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and scientific laboratories run by the Energy Department. The results were peer reviewed in scientific literature, and the summary report was independently reviewed by seven external experts.

The report found that global policy to curb climate change could prevent 12,000 deaths from extreme heat and cold, or what it estimated as $200 billion in savings to the American economy by 2100. It also said climate policy could prevent 720 to 2,200 bridges from becoming structurally vulnerable for an estimated savings by the end of the century of $1.1 billion to $1.6 billion.

In addition, the report found that climate policy could prevent $50 million to $6.4 billion in adaptation costs to urban drainage systems, which could be flooded by extreme storms.

If climate change is mitigated, the report found a 40 percent to 59 percent reduction in probability of extreme drought, which would otherwise cost American farmers $2.6 billion to $3.1 billion.

Unchecked climate change could lead to the destruction by wildfire of six million to 7.9 million acres of forest, the report found, at a cost of $940 million to $1.4 billion. And it could lead to the destruction of ecosystems such as coral reefs that support economic activity, including 35 percent of the coral reefs in Hawaii, at a loss of $1.2 billion.

White House officials hope to marshal the numbers to counter political opposition to Mr. Obama’s climate change agenda. Republicans and the coal industry have criticized it as regulatory overreach that could shut down some industries and cost jobs, particularly in coal mining. In August, the E.P.A. is expected to unveil the centerpiece of Mr. Obama’s climate change policy, a set of regulations designed to cut emissions from coal-fired power plants, the largest contributor to the American greenhouse gas footprint.

Once enacted, the rules could lead to the closing of hundreds of such coal plants, and freeze demand for production of American coal. By pushing for other countries to enact similar policies, Mr. Obama is also trying to lower demand for coal consumption around the world.

The regulations will also force electric utilities to build new generators to produce electricity with less pollution, from wind, solar, nuclear and natural gas plants. The construction will require thousands of miles of new electric transmission lines, all of which could drive up electricity costs and lead to lower power reliability, according to the heads of some electric utilities.

“The results are quite startling and very clear,” Gina McCarthy, the administrator of the E.P.A., said in a news briefing with reporters. “It’s very clear that climate action now pays. It saves lives and cuts costs. These are really big numbers, and we can limit the losses if we act now.”

Mr. Obama hopes to make the case that the long-term economic benefits of taking action on climate change will outweigh the short and medium-term costs.

1910. Climate Change: The Window of Opportunity in Saving Oceans Is Closing Fast

By Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, The Conversation, July 2, 2015

Until recently, you might be forgiven for thinking that the oceans were a trivial component of Earth’s climate system, and that the consequences of change were minimal. After all, only 5% of papers published on climate change involve ocean systems. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which evaluates the peer-reviewed scientific literature, did not devote a regional chapter to the ocean until its most recent major report.
Yet the ocean system could not be more important: it regulates the global temperature and atmosphere, feeds 3 billion people, and largely determines our weather. The ocean also has lots of “inertia” – which means that getting the ocean to change takes a lot of energy, but once it begins to change, slowing it down becomes more or less impossible.
A paper published today in Science (on which I am one of the authors) has issued a warning that our window of opportunity to save the oceans from major changes is in danger of slamming shut, bringing with it the risk that we will encounter planetary-scale tipping points in the behaviour of the climate. Building on the IPCC’s extensive assessment last year of the effects of climate change on the oceans, my co-authors and I have compiled the latest evidence and projections about the ocean under rapid human-driven climate change.
The news is not good. Failure to act on climate change will see warmer and more stagnant oceans, with declining oxygen levels and productivity in some regions, and the removal or modification of ecosystems in other areas. Fisheries and national economies are in the cross hairs in many regions. Rising seas and intensifying storms, plus a loss of critical coastal features, will make life on the shores of a rapidly changing ocean dangerously different to today.
The risks currently being experienced across the planet. Most, if not all, are set to increase. Gattuso et al.
Click to enlarge
A lot hinges on whether we can meet the globally agreed 2C “warming guardrail”, but there are fears that this is impossible within current economic strategies, and that even this target is unsafe.
It would be fine to state this if we had a safe alternative, but we don’t. Consequently, the bar for the end-of-year Paris climate summit is set much higher than many understand. As I’ll explain below, we need a global deal that reduces global emissions to zero over the next 20 years, or else we will see momentous changes.

Calls to action

Thankfully, world leaders are beginning to wake up to the challenge facing our oceans. US Secretary of State John Kerry and Prince Albert II of Monaco, are among those who have spoken out against what many see as impending chaos.
The latest is Pope Francis, who became the first pontiff to warn of ocean warming, acidification and sea-level rise, pointing out in his recent encyclical that “a quarter of the world’s population lives on the coast or nearby, and … the majority of our megacities are situated in coastal areas”.
For the first time, the Vatican is fighting for the ocean. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Global Change Institute, University of Queensland
Our research adds to the already mounting evidence that these leaders are right when they say we need to act decisively on fossil fuel emissions and other drivers of climate change.
One of the most stunning conclusions from the IPCC’s report is the statement that “the current rate and magnitude of ocean acidification are at least 10 times faster than any event within the last 65 million years”. Given that periods of rapid acidification over tens of thousands of years – slow by our current human-driven standard - resulted in mass extinctionand ecological collapse, this alone should be reason to act.
In a few regions, such as the North Sea, temporary increases in fisheries production are being reported, as the ice retreats, seas warm, and productivity increases. But these benefits are few and far between, and are likely to disappear over time as the ocean warms and acidifies further.
Coral reefs perhaps provide the perfect parable for the Pope’s encyclical. Everyone appreciates their beauty and value, but few may be aware of the crucial role that they play in terms of protecting coastlines, and supporting fisheries and other industries. They generate hundreds of billions of dollars each year and support some 500 million mostly poor people worldwide. Our report highlights the extreme sensitivity of these ecosystems to ocean warming and acidification.
Climate-driven changes in the oceans pose risks to organisms, ecosystems, people and industry. Gattuso et al.
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Work to do at the Paris summit

As we progress down the road to Paris, paved with skeletons of these important organisms, there is little doubt about the amount of work that needs to be done in Paris. Analysis of the world’s “carbon budget” (see here and here suggest that we can emit about another 500-800 billion tonnes (gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide before we push global temperatures beyond 2C above the pre-industrial average. This gives us about 20 years before net global emissions have to fall to zero – a tall order indeed.
There is hope. The recent US-China climate deal is one reason to be optimistic that negotiations in Paris will be smoother than at the Copenhagen climate talks in 2009. But I wonder whether leaders are aware of the true scale of the work that needs to be done to avoid catastrophe. Perhaps the fact that China this week made clear the strength of its new climate commitments is evidence of this.
Yet here is a sobering calculation: imagine that the rest of the world falls into line with the US and Chinese climate targets. How much of the world’s budget would we burn?
The answer would be that the world had emitted 1,400 gigatonnes of CO2, or 175-280% of our remaining budget, dragging average global warming to 3C and beyond (see the orange line on the graph below). This would be disastrous for us and our children, and many of the benefits of our oceans (coral reefs, fisheries, coastal living) would be transformed beyond recognition.
The relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and future average global temperatures. IPCC
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An ethical response

Mention of “us and our children” brings us back to Pope Francis and the importance of not reducing everything to a dollar value. Yet even in pure economic terms, given that the IPCC calculates that keeping atmospheric CO2 below about 450 parts per million (which would give us a good chance of staying within the 2C guardrail) would cost just 0.06% of global consumption growth per year, one is left wondering why we are not jumping right in and solving this problem.
Pope Francis made an important observation:
In a word, businesses profit by calculating and paying only a fraction of the costs involved. Yet only when “the economic and social costs of using up shared environmental resources are recognized with transparency and fully borne by those who incur them, not by other peoples or future generations”, can those actions be considered ethical.
Once can only hope the leaders heading to Paris will heed his words and drive their efforts in a new direction.

1909. Greece: The Referendum on Austerity

By Stathis Kouvelakis, Jacobin,  July 1, 2015


My “uncharacteristic silence” of the last few days, as someone described it on my Facebook page, is simply due to the fact that, since I arrived in Athens for the No campaign on Sunday, I have slept very little and worked a lot. Today I spoke at two gatherings at workplaces (the central railway station in Athens and the central building of the subway). A great experience. My schedule for tomorrow includes talks at various gatherings in the industrial zone of Moschato and a public meeting in Petroupoli, in the western suburbs of Athens.

Workers feel the pressure of the situation created by the media hysteria and the closure of the banks. They are rather critical of the concessions made by the government during those exhausting “negotiations,” but in general they are confident in the victory of No. They expect this to be a new start for the Syriza government, with more of its program implemented.

I would urge all those who follow what is going on in Greece with the typical mixture of anxiety and hope to keep as cool a head as possible. The Greek media are in a hysterical state, and the Western media are not that different. One of their favorite themes, on top of the apocalyptic atmosphere they are propagating, is that the referendum will not take place, that the government has actually accepted the Juncker plan and will cancel the referendum and so on. Beware of such misinformation.

It is true that some initiatives of the government are, to say the least, ambiguous and debatable. This is particularly true of yesterday’s proposal for a new loan from the European Stability Mechanism and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s letter to the Eurogroup disclosed today. Their aim is to display goodwill and give credit to the position that what will take place next week, following a potential victory of No, is a new cycle of “negotiations.” But everyone knows that a) this is very unlikely to happen and b) that in any case there aren’t any proper negotiations going on now: Merkel made it clear that absolutely no talks are conceivable before Sunday.

So there is a dimension of posturing on both sides and of tactical maneuvering on the side of Syriza, but it is also true that this is a reflection of contradictions within the government and Syriza. Its “realist” wing (lead by Deputy Prime Minister Yannis Dragasakis) is trying to put forward the idea that the referendum is just an unpleasant (and brief) conflictual parenthesis and that the negotiations will start anew on the basis of the very serious concessions the government had accepted just before the break of the talks. The official position, however, is that the negotiations will start from a “zero basis,” which means that all the previous Greek proposals have to now be considered obsolete.

Tsipras’s speech today was well-received and widely seen as defiant, thus succeeding in overcoming the demobilizing impact of the latest proposals. But of course, the best ally of the No camp is the uncompromising and hubristic attitude of the lenders, leaving no room for “compromise,” even of the worst kind.

According to opinion polls published today, “no” is ahead by eleven to thirteen points, but the gap has narrowed significantly since Monday due to the closure of banks, the restrictions on cash withdrawals, and the problem pensioners have had receiving their payments.

This has inevitably created an atmosphere of uncertainty and fear, and that was exactly what the Eurogroup leaders had in mind when they decided to stop any liquidity provision. However, it is also unsurprising that it is only among pensioners and housewives that “yes” leads or is close to majority support. Everywhere else, including among small-business owners, “no” leads.

A lot will depend on the capacity of each camp to mobilize, but particularly the No side. Tuesday’s gathering of Yes voters was big and well-planned, but almost exclusively upper middle-class, and that was probably the peak of what they can do in terms of mobilization. Taking into account that it was highly improvised, Monday’s No rally was a successful start. The campaign on the ground started today, and it will be almost entirely monopolized by the No camp. The mood in Greek society is one of increasing polarization — along clear class lines in the urban centers, more diffused in the countryside and in the small cities.

Qualitatively speaking Syriza’s branches are galvanized, and there is an excellent relation with the comrades of Antarsya. Other forces, from the social movements and various campaigns, are also joining. A “united front” type of campaign is taking form, which is excellent news.

But the big setback here is the attitude of the Communist Party, which can only be qualified as a “betrayal.” (In general I don’t like this term but in this case it seems justified.) They will present their own ballot paper, affirming a “double no” (to the troïka plan and to the government, both seen as “two sides of the same coin”), a ballot paper that of course will be invalid. Presumably they will do their own counting and then announce the result as some kind of “success” of their line.

If No wins — which seems likely but not certain — and if it wins a clear majority, which also remains to be seen, it’s almost inevitable that the confrontation with the European Union and the domestic dominant class will escalate. Greece has already refused to pay the International Monetary Fund in June, and formal default will be declared in thirty days. The liquidity and currency weapons will be used even more heavily, with the European Central Bank and the European Financial Stability Facility asking for their loans to be repaid immediately. The moment of “great decisions” for Syriza will then inevitably come.

A victory for the No camp would galvanize popular forces. But this outcome should not under any circumstances be considered a given. It is the object of the amazing battle that is taking place now.