Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts

Sunday, August 30, 2026

3713. A Contribution to the Discussion of the Guardian's "Open Letter" on Iran

By Kamran Nayeri, August 30, 2026

Protest on the 40th day since the death of Mahsa/Jina Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian who died after being arrested by the morality police in Tehran on September 22, 2022. 

On August 20, The Guardian published an Open Letter, “To Iran’s political prisoners, trapped ‘between two blades of a scissors’”, by 23 prominent leftists mostly from the United States and Western Europe: “We write to you from a place of deep solidarity, our hearts heavy with the knowledge of the struggle you face within Iran’s prisons: the torture, the systematic neglect, the enforced silence, and the brutal reality of sham trials and executions.”

The authors go further:

“And we stand in solidarity with you, as you are at the intersection of two sources of oppression.

“On one side, you face the Islamic Republic that, from its inception, enforced absolute social and political control based on an exclusionary ideology. It is a system that claims to counter imperial power while using its very logic of domination and systems of carcerality, torture and execution.

“On the other side, you face the aggression and violence of the very imperialist and Zionist forces the Islamic Republic purports to stand against.” (my emphases).

The Open Letter has ignited a much-needed public discussion.

This essay contributes to this discussion by examining aspects of the twin problems of how to defend Iran against imperialist and Zionist aggression while fighting for the release of political prisoners in Iran.  

As an Iranian American socialist since 1971 who participated in organized Iranian socialist movement (1975-1982) and organized socialist movements in the U.S. since 1982, I have firsthand experience in defense of Iranian political prisoners as well as participating as a leader of the Iranian Trotskyist movement and a co-founder of the Workers Unity Party in the Iranian revolution (1979-82) with the goal of helping the Iranian working people to form their own government based on their own grassroots organizations, in particular the workers and peasants shora (council) movements.

To proceed, I'll cite some notable earlier contributions focusing on the “scissors” analogy that frames the Open Letter.

Vijay Prashad, the executive director of the Tricontinental Institute for Social Research, in “Against the False Symmetry of the Scissors: An Open Letter While Iran Resists an Illegal War of Aggression,” criticizes the “scissors” analogy:

“The central image, two blades of a scissors, is evocative but erroneous. It suggests that one of the blades is the Islamic Republic and the other blade is the United States and Israel, with the Iranian people being cut by the two of them. The error of the scissors is not merely that its blades are unequal. It is that the image makes the aggressor and the attacked appear as parallel sources of the same danger, stripping away the history and hierarchy that connect them. US imperialism is not simply one oppression alongside another. It is the force that has encircled Iran, devastated the region, armed Israel, imposed sanctions upon an entire population, and now brought war to Iranian territory. Your letter places the aggression and its target in the same moral frame.” (emphasis added)

Thus, the political framework Prashad uses is what was called Third Worldism in the 1960s and later “anti-imperialism,” which frames the main problem Iranian working people face as imperialism rather than the clerical capitalist Islamic Republic. Indeed, he considers the Islamic Republic regime (which he identifies with Iran as the country) to be an anti-imperialist force facing off against United States imperialism and Israeli Zionism. Thus, he praises the Islamic Republic policy of forming what they call the Axis of Resistance.

Farah Mokhtareizadeh, in “Who Names the World? Anti-Imperialism and Iran's Political Prisoners,” correctly points out:

“Prashad’s argument becomes more difficult when he moves from geopolitical asymmetry to political timing. There is a time to make demands and a time to act in solidarity, he suggests, implying that certain demands upon the Iranian state should recede while imperial war continues. The difficulty is that prisoners live both dangers in the same present tense. An execution sentence does not pause for war, and a prison door does not unlock because the state holding the key confronts a greater external power. The question becomes not whether Iranian repression exists but whether Iranians must postpone naming or resisting that repression until some safer political moment arrives.”

She notes that the scissors analogy was used by Keyvan Mohtadi, a labor activist and former political prisoner, on June 24, 2025, the day after Israeli bombing of Evin Prison, about the political prisoners held inside, including his wife, the labor organizer Anisha Asadollahi.

Thus, Mokhtareizadeh shows how opposition to imperialist and Zionist war and freedom of political prisoners are intertwined and reinforcing. 

The false scissors analogy

At the same time, Mokhtareizadeh’s example shows that the scissors analogy betrays political confusion among a considerable section of the left regarding Iran since the 1979 revolution that overthrew the U.S.-installed dictatorship of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.  There can be no doubt that the clerical capitalist Islamic Republic and imperialism oppress the Iranian working people. However, were they not oppressed by Mohammad Reza Shah’s dictatorial regime and imperialism before the 1979 Iranian revolution?  Of course they were, as the 1979 revolution was anti-dictatorial and anti-imperialist. The scissors analogy refers to the fact that the 1979 revolution overthrew the U.S.-installed regime of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and because of the weakness of the working class and socialist movements, put the power in the hands of ayatollah Khomeini, who proceeded to create the Islamic Republic, which is independent of imperialism, by crushing grassroots movements of the working people unleashed by that revolution.

The 1979 Iranian revolution threatened the dominance of imperialism, Zionism, and reactionary Arab regimes in the Middle East. Contrary to the dominant view propagated by both the Islamic Republic and imperialism, the 1979 revolution was not an Islamic Revolution. It was an anti-dictatorial, anti-imperialist, national democratic revolution aspiring to democracy, freedom, and social justice.

However, the Iranian people who lived under dictatorship had no chance to discuss what kind of society, economy, or state they wished to create after they overthrew the Pahlavi dynasty.  The labor movement, especially oil workers, played a significant role in the revolution, but it was politically unprepared to lead the revolution. The left was largely influenced by Stalinism, the ideology that envisioned a national democratic movement led by an anti-imperialist leader. The Tudeh Party held the totalitarian Soviet Union as the Actually Existing Socialism, and pro-China Stalinists (Maoists) held a similar view of the revolution. What is more, Stalinism of the Iranian socialist currents trained them as an undemocratic force. Here is an example: right after the victorious insurrection of February 9-12, two groups of Iranian Trotskyists merged in the Socialist Workers Party.  They planned to hold their first public meeting at Tehran Polytechnic (now Amir Kabir University) in central Tehran. A group of Maoists, Communist Union اتحادیه کمونیست ها), physically attacked and disrupted the meeting. The reason was Stalinism. Both Moscow and Beijing continued Stalin’s campaign against Trotsky and Trotskyism until the Soviet Union collapsed and China became the world's leading capitalist power! Meanwhile, Iranian labor and socialist movements never made defending democratic and political rights their central concern. Thus, when Khomeini declared mandatory Islamic dress for women who were government employees, the protest in Tehran included a rally in front of Tehran University and a march to Azadi Square, which was attacked by semi-fascist Islamic gangs and drew only 20,000 mostly younger women (at the time, Tehran had 3 million people). The labor movement and many leftist groups did not mobilize to participate in or defend it.

Political Islam and the Axis of Resistance

Thus, the power people took by months of mass struggle and three days of armed insurrection across the country was handed over to Ayatollah Khomeini, who began to institutionalize the theocratic capitalist Islamic Republic. In the early 1970s, while in exile in Iraq, Khomeini wrote a pamphlet titled Velayat-e Faghih (the rule of Islamic Jurists). He argued that Muslims everywhere are ruled by non-Muslims and demanded the formation of an Islamic government ruled by Islamic Jurists. The 1979 revolution gave Khomeini that opportunity to establish it in Iran, which he was able to do by deceit and by bloody repression.

Of course, consolidating the Islamic Republic required destroying grassroots movements of working people, including the workers’ shora (council) movement resulting from the 1979 revolution, suppression of oppressed nationalities, systematic oppression of women, as well as any independent political party. Thus, the 1979 Iranian revolution was destroyed through bloody repression by the clerical capitalist Islamic Republic, not by imperialism! (Nayeri, 2025, Chapter One, Chapter Two, pp. 51-56).

However, Khomeini’s vision required expanding the Islamic Republic's power among Shiites in the Middle East. This led to the formation of the Axis of Resistance. This created a new form of confrontation with imperialism and Zionism over their domination of the Middle East and their decades-long struggle to overthrow the Islamic Republic. Prashad mistakes this trajectory for anti-imperialism and anti-Zionism.

Rejecting Dependency School politics

By now it must be clear that how to stop imperialist and Zionist attacks on Iran and at the same time fight for Iranian people’s political rights, especially through building a movement to free all political prisoners, requires theoretical certifications. The “anti-imperialist” framework reflects the dominance of Dependency School (DS) in the 1950s and 1960s, which waned in the 1970s.

In the post-World War II period, anticolonial revolution swept much of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. It raised questions about their development. The Dependency School (DS) refers to a group of different theories that shared the idea that the backwardness of the periphery of world capitalism was due to imperialism. Thus, those who subscribed to DS theories framed their political theories on “anti-imperialism.” At the same time, Latin American nationalist economists formulated the initial DS theories (Nayeri, 2023B, Chapter 3), two prominent socialist dependency theories emerged: Paul Baran's Political Economy of Growth (1957; for a critique see Nayeri, 2023B, Chapter pp. 82-118) and Arghiri Emmanuel’s Unequal Exchange: A Study of the Imperialism of Trade (1972, for a critique see Nayeri 2023B, Chapter 4).

However, DS theories did not jive with Marx's historical materialism, which focuses on modes of production and relations of production to understand society and history. Instead, both Baran and Emanuel focus on imperialism as an external force and the sphere of circulation to explain the periphery's economic backwardness.

By the late 1970s, the DS school began to decline as countries in the periphery of capitalism industrialized, beginning with South Korea and, by the new century, China, which is now outcompeting the United States as the leading world capitalist economy.

Thus, Parshad’s outdated, mistaken DS framework leads him to support the expansionist policies of the clerical capitalist Islamic Republic in the name of “anti-imperialism.”

From Marx’s point of view, capital is self-expanding value. Thus, capital will outgrow its geographical location, and each capitalist state would protect its capitalist interests outside its borders. That is sufficient to explain the economic basis of wars, including World War I and World War II.  In fact, Hilferding’s claim in Finance Capital (1910) that an era of finance capital (later called monopoly capital) and Marx’s labor theory of value, his theory of how the capitalist mode of production functions, is obsolete was based on his mistaking Marx’s theory of competition as being similar to the neoclassical theory of Perfect Competition (Nayeri, 2023B, pp. 11-45). Thus, Lenin’s Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism (1916), based largely on Hilferding’s work, is also mistaken. At any rate, in the same work Lenin identifies imperialism with the export of capital from advanced capitalist states to the periphery and views this as developing the forces of production there.  Thus, DS socialists have been wrong both in constructing their theories and in claiming they are Marxist.

Questions of program, strategy, and tactics

Still, many socialists would agree that the defense of the political prisoners in Iran must be put in the context of U.S. imperialism and Israeli Zionism to attack Iran.  This does not mean that defending democracy and freedom of political expression is subordinate to requirements of fighting imperialism and Zionism. In fact, I would argue in a moment that the two are intertwined and complementary. That is, the Islamic Republic has for almost half a century undermined effective struggle against imperialism and Zionism by attacking individual, democratic and political rights in Iran.

The authors of the Open Letter write: “The Iranian authorities must stop their inhumane practice of death and incarceration now. And the US and Israel must end their barbaric wars and brutal sanctions that knowingly devastate our communities.” This formulation in the Open Letter leaves out the “regime change” agenda of imperialism and Zionism untouched. Not only was regime change the stated goal of the U.S./Israeli war against Iran, but it is the active foreign policy of the Trump administration, as we saw in Venezuela and now see in Cuba. What Trump was able to achieve in Venezuela was what has been called “the shortest war in history”: Nicolas Maudura and his wife were abducted, and Delcy Rodríguez, his vice president, agreed to govern in accordance with Marco Rubio's instructions in Venezuela (Pager and Kurmanaev, July 11, 2026). Neither should we stand quiet when the U.S. and Israelis assassinate leaders of the Islamic

Republic.

The public and the left in the West have failed to actively oppose Israeli genocide in Gaza backed by the U.S. and European imperialist powers! Why would it be any different in the case of sanctions and war against Iran that have been unfolding since the 1979 revolution?

The key question the Open Letter raises is how can a massive enough anti-war movement be built to stop the U.S./Israeli war against Iran?  At the same time, how can an effective movement be built to stay the hands of the clerical capitalist Islamic Republic?

The answer to the first question depends on mass radicalization among working people and youth. No sign of it on the horizon, although nobody really knows how and when such radicalizations unfold.

The answer to the second question largely depends on the working people and socialist currents in Iran for the simple reason that the Islamic Republic continues to enjoy a mass base in Iran that has gone along with its repressive policies.

To overcome this obstacle, a principled anti-imperialist vision to uphold the sovereignty of the Iranian people is the necessary framework for advancing the goals of enhancing political space in Iran and freedom of political prisoners.  

Building a movement of the working people in Iran to challenge the Islamic Republic

The great masses who made the Iranian revolution of 1979 aspired to democracy, freedom, independence, and social justice. Ayatollah Khomeini destroyed grassroots movements that aspired to this vision to install the clerical capitalist Islamic Republic. We need to take up those aspirations and develop them to address the needs of Iran and the world in the twenty-first century.

Earlier I argued that the Islamic Republic is NOT anti-imperialist, that it opposes U.S. imperialism and Israeli Zionism from the narrow vision of Islamic fundamentalism.

As socialists, we need to oppose imperialism and Zionism because they are manifestations of capital as self-expanding value, thus, the capitalist mode of production, mixed with ideologically backward colonial notions. The United States imperialism is the expression of Manifest Destiny, and Zionism is the colonial-settler ideology of occupation and ethnic cleansing of Palestine.

Thus, to defend the sovereignty of the Iranian working people, socialists in Iran must oppose the U.S./Israeli war with a program of action of their own in sharp contrast to the current policies of the Islamic Republic. I would propose the following for discussion among Iranian working people.  A key lesson of the 1979 revolution was that people were united on what/who they did not want but not on what kind of society and economy they wanted and how it would be run.  

I propose the following as a conversation starter.

  • ·       Freedom of expression, freedom of the press, freedom of association, freedom of religion, especially for the oppressed nationalities, women, and defenders of nature. End all forms of oppression of women; for empowerment of women in all levels of society and the state. For individual freedom. For culture and art for everyone. 
  • ·       Freedom for working people to establish their own organizations, such as unions and shoras.  Jobs for all.  For minimum wages and salaries tied to inflation; for an affordable life consistent with human development for all. For an end to child labor. Free quality public education for all. 
  • ·       Freedom of all political prisoners. End all forms of torture and capital punishment now!
  • ·       No arbitrary arrests, presumption of innocence until proven guilty by a jury of one’s peers, and the right to due process. Dissolve the Islamic courts.
  •       Separation of religion and state; the right of the people to vote and to elect the representatives of their choice.
  • ·       The right to form committees of people's representatives that would be responsible to the people themselves and not to the state.
  • ·       The right to arm the people and organize a people's militia; dissolve all repressive armed forces of the Islamic Republic.
  • ·       The right of the mass organizations of the people to administer all the affairs of the towns and provinces.
  • ·       The right to liberation and voluntary cooperation of all the peoples and nationalities living in Iran. The right of self-determination of oppressed nationalities.
  • ·       The right of Iran to political and economic independence from imperialism.
  • ·       For workers’ control and management of all state industries and all enterprises that refuse to serve the interests of their workers and the working people in general.
  • ·       For a constituent assembly organized by the movements of working people to draft a new constitution. For a workers’ state. 
  •         For solidarity with oppressed people and nations; for a democratic secular Palestine where Palestinians and Jews and others live together as equals.  
  • ·       For the right to clean air and water. For the rights of nature to prosper without human exploitation. For an economy and society free of nuclear hazard and fossil fuels. For a green economy.  For a society at peace with itself and at peace with nature

The future Iranian revolution needs to be an ecological socialist revolution because of the existential world ecological crises: catastrophic global warming and climate change, the Sixth Extinction, recurrent pandemics, and nuclear holocaust. I propose Ecocentric Socialism as a vision to aspire to (Nayeri, 2023A, especially Chapter 19).

Building a movement to free all political prisoners in Iran

My experience in a successful campaign to free political prisoners in Iran dates to the 1970s, as in the Committee for Artistic and Intellectual Freedom in Iran (CAIFI). Formed in New York in 1973 to defend Reza Baraheni, the well-known Iranian author, poet, and literary critic of Azeri origin, and a founder of the Writers Association of Iran, who was arrested, tortured, and held in prison. CAIFI challenged the ultra-left sectarian view of the Confederation of Iranian Students (dominated by Maoists and nationalists), who did not believe political prisoners could be freed through mass work, and in some cases they did not even consider defending political prisoners they did not hold to be “revolutionaries.” CAIFI, by contrast, believed in defending all political prisoners regardless of ideology, selecting a few prominent political prisoners to draw public attention to the plight of all political prisoners and building the broadest possible coalition through democratic organizational methods. CAIFI won over the support of some prominent liberal and leftist Americans, including Kay Boyle, Daniel Ellsberg, Ramsey Clark, and Angela Davis, a former political prisoner and signer of the Open Letter, who supported CAIFI.  CAIFI gained momentum when, under international pressure, Baraheni was released, traveled to the U.S., and agreed to be a keynote speaker at CAIFI-sponsored events, attracting even more support for its campaigns.  In just a few years, CAIFI became the most successful defender of the Shah's political prisoners.  CAIFI's mission was finally accomplished when the February 1979 revolution freed all the Shah's political prisoners.

CAIFI was formed in the United States, the main supporter of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's dictatorship, where public opinion mattered. The Islamic Republic’s mass base is inside Iran. Thus, it is necessary to build a defense committee inside Iran, building on CAIFI and other successful defense efforts.

References:

Nayeri, Kamran. Whose Planet? Essays on Ecocentric Socialism. 2023. 

___________. Toward a Theory of Uneven and Combined Late Capitalist Development. 2023.

___________. Between Dreams and Reality: Essays on Revolution and Socialism. 2025.

Pager, Tyler and Anatoly Kurmanaev. “How Marco Rubio Is Running Venezuela From Afar.” The New York Times, July 11, 2026.

Wednesday, October 5, 2022

3608. The Revolutionary "Zhina/Mahsa" Movement in Iran

Editor's note: On 16 September 2022, a 22-year old Iranian Kurdish woman, Mahsa (Zhina) Amini, died while in custody of the Islamic Republic "morality police" for alleged wearing  "improper hijab."  Since then Iran has been rocked by ongoing protests in which the youth, especially young women, have played a central role. The central slogan of this movement is "Women, Life, Liberty."  This movement has won the support of of many, especially women, across the world. To my knowledge this the first time that a mass protest potentially leading to a revolutionary situation has centered on women liberation anywhere in the world. OPITW is republishing this article which is in Farsi from Naghd, a socialist online magazine in Iran.  If an English translation is made available, it will also get republished here.  KN

جنبش انقلابی ژینا/مهسا

خودسازمان‌دهی، رهبری از پایین و هم‌گرایی چندراستایی 

نسخه‌ی چاپی (پی دی اف)

نوشته‌ی: ناصر پیشرو 

جنبش انقلابی ژینا/مهسا که طی چند روز سراسر جامعه‌ی ایران را فراگرفته و جمهوری اسلامی را آماج قرار داده به سمت فرایند‌های یک انقلاب در حرکت است. اگرچه هنوز در فاز‌های نخستین این فرآیند هستیم و گذار به مراحل دیگری همانند اعتصاب عمومی و حضور جنبش طبقاتی کارگران در متن آن و ایجاد شکاف‌های عمیق در ساختار قدرت به صورتی که «حکومت‌کنندگان دیگر نتوانند» سرکوب کنند نیاز است. در این میانه همچنین سناریوهای دیگری همانند سازش و یا مصادره‌ی جنبش از بالا برای ایجاد بدیل ارتجاعی دیگری نیز امکان‌پذیر است. اما آن‌چه که از هم‌اکنون روشن است بازگشت به شرایط پیشین برای جمهوری اسلامی امکان‌پذیر نیست.

سوژه‌ی جنبش همانند همه‌ی جنبش‌های انقلابی مردم عادی و در مرکز آن نسل جوان و زنان پرشوری هستند که به خیابان‌ها آمده به جسورانه‌ترین اشکال ممکن ساختار حکومتی را آماج قرار داده‌اند. آتش زدن نمادهای حجاب اجباری که از مرزهای ایدئولوژیک نظام حاکم است، طرح شعارهای آزادی‌خواهانه، جسارت و ازخودگذشتگی در مقابل دستگاه نظم و سرکوب، نشانه‌های شرایطی است که به سمت زیر و رو شدن نظم حاکم حرکت می‌کند. هر فرآیند انقلابی اما باید در متن شرایط زمینه‌سازِ بروز آن واکاوی شود.

برآمد خیزش‌ها

بحران‌های درهم‌تنیده‌ی اقتصادی‌سیاسی، زیست‌محیطی، ژئوپولیتیک حکومت در کنار فساد و ناکارآمدی آن، زمینه‌ساز فقر، نابرابری، نومیدی از آینده و انبوهی از تضادها و نابرابری‌هایی بوده که بازتاب آن به خیزش‌هایی از دی‌ماه و آبان، تا «خروش تشنگان» منجر شده که فضای سیاسی ایران را تغییر داده است. سمت‌و‌سوی این‌ خیزش‌ها نیز سیر متناوب صعودی داشته است. پاسخ حکومت در مواجهه با این شرایط اما چیزی جز سرکوب و زندان نبوده است. جنبش‌ انقلابی ژینا/مهسا نیز بر زمینه‌ی تداوم این خیزش‌ها پدید آمده و در ابعادی فزاینده سراسر جامعه را فرا گرفته است.

جغرافیای سیاسی جنبش کنونی نیز فراخ‌تر شده و این بار در کنار شهرها و شهرستان‌ها به کلان‌شهرهایی بزرگ سرایت کرده است. ویژگی مهم دیگر فراخ‌تر شدن این خیزش و همبستگی فزاینده در متن آن بوده است. طرح شعارهایی نظیر «از کردستان تا تهران، ستم علیه زنان» که علیه تمرکزگرایی و شوونیسم است، نماد دیگری از همبستگی سراسری توده‌های مردم علیه حکومت است. این شعار نه‌تنها سیاست رژیم برای ایجاد تفرقه و دعاوی «تجزیه‌طلبی» را عملاً خنثی کرده بلکه ستم ملی را به چالش گرفته و نشانه‌ی بلوغ فکری جامعه است.

حضور جسورانه و توده‌ای زنان بر علیه آپارتاید زن‌ستیزانه و حجاب اجباری نیز دستاورد بزرگی است که نه‌تنها نقطه‌عطفی در جنبش زنان ایران است بلکه جایگاه مهمی در جنبش جهانی زنان دارد و باید به شکل مستقل واکاوی شود. حضور پرشور و توده‌ای زنان در این جنبش انقلابی دست‌آوردهای دیگری هم داشته است. سوژه‌ی اصلی جنبش زنان در این عرصه دیگر نخبگان نیستند، بلکه توده‌های عادی و نسل جوانی از زنان هستند که از کنترل و سلطه‌ی جنسیتی که حجاب نماد آشکار آن است به تنگ آمده‌اند و در خیابان‌ها جسورانه (برعلیه آن) مبارزه می‌کنند.

خودانگیختگی و سازمان‌یابی در جنبش‌ها

در خیزش‌های پسادی‌ماه و جنبش انقلابی ژینا/مهسا همانند همه‌‌ی خیزش‌ها و جنبش‌های انقلابی خودپویی و خودانگیختگی نقش برجسته‌ای داشته و موتور محرکه‌ی آن‌هاست. در هر پویش خودانگیخته نیز نوعی سازمان‌یابی وجود دارد که فرآیند شکل‌گیری و تداومِ آن را قوام بخشیده، ابتکارات و خلاقیت نوینی می‌آفریند که طی سال‌ها فعالیت سازمان‌یافته کشف نمی‌شود.

با این همه، نباید جایگاه خودسازمان‌دهی و اشکال ویژه‌ی آن را نادیده گرفت که از خیزش‌ دی‌ماه تا کنون همانند یک حلقه‌ی به‌هم‌پیوسته امتداد داشته است که همانا نقش پیشروهایی است که از دل همین خیزش‌ها شکل گرفته‌اند و نقشی بااهمیتی در تداوم و پیوستگی و خودسازمان‌دهی از پایین آن‌ها داشته‌اند. این نوع از خودسازمان‌یابی اما از نوع شناخته‌شده‌ی حزبی و سازمانی نیست.

از دوران پساخیزش دی‌ماه تا کنون بخش معینی از پیشروان و رهبران عملی در خیابان شکل گرفته که بسترساز تداوم خیزش‌ها بوده و هستند. آن‌ها فراخوان‌ها و محل اعتراضات در خیابان را تنظیم و چگونگی اشکال مواجهه با دستگاه سرکوب را تعیین می‌کنند، مراکز خبررسانی ایجاد کرده‌ و در تعیین شعارها نقش‌آفرینند. آن‌ها از ابتکارات توده‌های مردم می‌آموزند و آموزش می‌دهند.

این گروه از پیشروان یعنی رهبران عملی جنبش در خیابان هستند که می‌توانند در پویش‌ جنبش انقلابی و تداوم و پیوستگی  نقش مهمی ایفا کنند.

سازمان‌یابی: تداوم و به‌هم‌پیوستگی

راز پویش خیزش‌ها اما تداوم و به‌هم‌پیوستگی آن‌ها است و این چیزی نیست جز ضرورت خودسازمان‌دهی. روشن است که دیدگاه چپ درباره‌ی سازمان‌دهی از بیخ‌وبن با اپوزیسیون راست متفاوت است. سازمان‌دهی از نگاه اپوزیسیون راست در ساده‌ترین شکل بیان آن، سازمان‌دهی از بالا و مصادره‌ی جنبش‌ها‌ به‌واسطه‌ی کارکرد ابررسانه‌ها و قدرت‌های بزرگ سرمایه‌داری است. بررسی استراتژی اپوزیسیون راست و اشکال سازمان‌دهی و مصادره‌ی جنبش‌ها در شرایط متحول کنونی نیازمند نوشته‌ی دیگری است. گرچه درک چپ از مسئله‌ی سازمان‌دهی از ریشه با راست متفاوت است، اما به شرطی پوینده و تأثیرگذار است که از منشور نقد تجربه‌های گذشته و به‌ویژه احزاب مدعی کمونیست و سوسیالیست بگذرد.

به‌علاوه نیاز است که از تجربه‌ی‌ دیدگاه‌های اشتباهی که نافی خودسازمان‌دهی‌اند و پرستش «خودانگیختگی» ــ در جنبش‌های اوایل قرن کنونی همانند «جنبش 99 درصدی‌ها»، «فروم‌های اجتماعی»، و … ــ بیاموزیم و برای برطرف کردن کاستی‌های آن‌ها در جنبش‌های کنونی تلاش کنیم. (در این دوره دیدگاه مایکل هارت و آنتونی نگری که خودانگیختگی را مرکز تحرک جنبش‌ها می‌دانستند و سازمان‌دهی حزبی و سازمان‌دهی را نفی می‌کردند، بر این تحرکات اجتماعی مسلط شده بود. اما سال‌ها بعد خود آن‌ها به محدودیت‌های این نظریه اشاره کردند). متأسفانه روشن نیست که چرا بخشی از گرایشات چپ هنوز در ستایش از این نظریه اصرار دارند. تجربه‌ی جنبش‌های موسوم به «بهار عربی» به‌ویژه جنبش انقلابی در مصر هم نشان داد که با وجود نقش برجسته‌ی‌ خودپویی و فداکاری‌های نسل جوان انقلابی، به علت ناسازمان‌یافتگی، اخوان‌المسلمین که یک جریان ارتجاعی اما سازمان‌یافته بود، توانست بر فراز جنبش قرار بگیرد و آن را مصادره کند. در بازشناسی جنبش‌ها همواره باید وحدت خودانگیختگی و خودسازمان‌یابی در نظر گرفته شود. خودانگیختگی و خودپویی همواره زمینه‌ساز برآمدن جنبش‌ها است، خودسازمان‌دهی اما بستر تداوم، پیوستگی و هدف‌مند کردن ‌جنبش‌ها را ایجاد می‌کند.

مسئله‌ی رهبری

جنبش انقلابی ژینا مسئله‌ی رهبری و ضرورت آن را در فضای سیاسی گشوده است و این مسئله به یک پرسش‌واره مهم بدل شده است. از منظر اپوزیسیون راست، رهبری اغلب از بالا شکل می‌گیرد. برخی نظیر سلطنت‌طلبان به اشخاص مشهور سیاسی و نقش رضا پهلوی اتکا می‌کنند. در «شورای مدیریت دوران گذار» توافق بر سر «شخصیت‌های سیاسی و متخصصین» است. تکلیف مجاهدین هم که روشن است، نه‌تنها رهبری بلکه رئیس‌جمهورِ «جمهوری دموکراتیک اسلامی» را از قبل تعیین کرده‌اند. در طیف‌های دیگر اپوزیسیون راست وضعیت کم‌وبیش چنین است. در جایی که به علت اختناق سیاسی نقش احزاب و سازمان‌های سیاسی کم‌رنگ است، در اغلب طیف‌های اپوزیسیون راست مسئله‌ی سازمان‌دهی و رهبری با افراد، شخصیت‌ها، سلبریتی‌ها و… درهم‌آمیخته شده است و از منظر سیاسی در استراتژی «وحدت‌ملی» و «همه با هم» برجسته می‌شود. همان‌گونه که گفته شد، در این نوع از استراتژی استفاده از ابررسانه‌ها، برخی سلبریتی‌ها، مناسبات با دولت‌های امپریالیستی که تحت عنوان «جامعه‌ی جهانی» صورت‌بندی می‌شود، ابزارهای مهم «سازمان‌دهی» برای هژمونی و فرادستی برجنبش‌ها هستند.

خودسازمان‌دهی و رهبری از پایین

جنبش‌های انقلابی برای پیش‌روی نیازمند سازمان‌دهی و رهبری هستند. دیدگاه چپ سوسیالیست درباره‌ی مسئله‌ی رهبری اما از بنیاد با راست متفاوت است. هدف خودسازمان‌یابی سوسیالیستی فرمان‌روایی بر فراز جنبش‌ها نیست بلکه از درون آن‌ها و برای پیشروی آن‌ها فرا می‌روید. نیازی هم به «لیدر» و «دبیر کل» هم ندارد. رهبری یعنی توانایی و خلاقیت جمعی، دموکراتیک و از پائین برای هماهنگی فعالیت‌ها و عمل مشترک در راستای رسیدن به هدف. پراکسیس به مفهوم وحدت عمل و نظر است. رهبری به معنای تلاش برای ارتقای جنبش‌ها هم‌سو با اهداف رهایی‌بخش سوسیالیستی به‌واسطه‌ی عمل آگاهانه و هد‌ف‌مند است. با این برداشت کلی و عام از ضرورت سازمان‌دهی و رهبری به واکاوی آن‌ها در متن جنبش انقلابی کنونی می‌پردازیم.

مسئله‌ی سازمان‌یابی باید در متن شرایط مشخص در نظر گرفته شود. در جایی که استراتژی حاکمیت در چهل سال گذشته این بوده که اپوزیسیون متشکل نداشته باشد و با سرکوب‌های خونین مانع مهم و عامل بازدارنده‌ی هر نوع حرکت سازمان‌یافته بوده است. تأکید بر این نکته نافی کاستی‌ها و نقد گذشته‌ی چپ و ضرورت بازنگری مسئله‌ی سازمان‌یابی نیست. با این همه، نباید نادیده گرفته شود که چپ اجتماعی نیروی وسیعی در جامعه است و می‌تواند در تحولات جاری نقش برجسته‌ای داشته باشد. به‌شرطی که مسئله‌ی خودسازمان‌یابی را نه در احکام کلی بلکه در متن شرایط معین کنونی بررسی کنیم.

ایجاد هم صدایی و هم‌گرایی خیزش‌های سیاسی و جنبش‌های اجتماعی

از دی‌ماه تا کنون شاهد حضور خیزش‌های سیاسی در پریودهای زمانی متفاوت بوده‌ایم. روند این خیزش‌ها نه‌تنها قطع نشده بلکه پیوسته ادامه داشته و گستره‌ی‌ آن‌ها در فضای سیاسی نیز مدام ژرف‌تر شده است. در سوی دیگر جنبش‌های اجتماعی‌ای هستند که پیشینه‌ی طولانی در جامعه ما داشته و با وجود نوسان‌ها، همواره تداوم و پیوستگیْ شاخص‌ مهم آن‌هاست: جنبش کارگری که دست‌کم از یک قرن پیش حضور پیوسته داشته و در اوج سرکوب سال‌های اخیر بیش از 4000 اعتصاب ثبت شده داشته است؛ جنبش زنان که با پیشینه‌ی تاریخی طولانی، علیه آپارتاید جنسی حاکمیت موجود در اشکال متفاوت خودپو، علنی و نیمه‌علنی ایستاده است؛ جنبش دانشجویی که متکی بر یک سنت مبارزاتی ماندگار است و نمادی از حضور نسل جوان پیشرو و آگاه در تحولات سیاسی است؛ جنبش آزادی‌خواهانه برای تحقق آزادی‌های سیاسی و اجتماعی و مبارزه علیه استبداد (که در شرایط کنونی تشکل‌هایی همانند «کانون نویسندگان ایران» نمود برجسته‌ی آن است)؛ جنبش علیه ستم ملی و قومی که همواره در جامعه‌ی ایران حضور پررنگی داشته است؛ جنبش علیه تخریب محیط زیست که اگرچه در ایران نوپا است اما با توجه به تخریب‌های زیست‌محیطی و پیامد آن، ضرورت درک همه‌جانبه از پیامد‌های آن را در واکنش «قیام تشنگان» می‌توان مشاهده کرد. پیشروان این جنبش‌ها می‌توانند بین خواسته‌های ‌جنبش‌های اجتماعی و خیزش‌ها و جنبش‌های سیاسی رابطه‌ی معین و هم‌صدایی ایجاد کنند و این درست بستر اصلی هرگونه سازمان‌دهی از پایین است.

خودسازمان‌دهی و هم‌گرایی چندراستایی

ایجاد هم‌صدایی و هم‌گرایی بین خیزش‌های سیاسی و جنبش‌های اجتماعی گام مهمی در سازمان‌یابی و پیش‌روی جنبش‌های انقلابی است. ایجاد هم‌صدایی در معنای طرح خواسته‌ها و شعارهای جنبش‌های اجتماعی در فضای خیزش‌های سیاسی و سمت‌وسو دادن به آن‌ها نیازمند هم‌گرایی پیشروان جنبش‌های اجتماعی و نیز پیشروان عملی خیزش‌ها و جنبش انقلابی اخیر است.

تجربه‌ی خیزش‌های سال‌های اخیر نیز اهمیت این نوع از هم‌گرایی وتأثیرات آن را نشان می‌دهد. برای نمونه شعار «اصلاح‌طلب، اصول‌گرا دیگه تموم شد ماجرا» که توسط فعالان پیشروِ دانشجویی طرح و در فضای سیاسی خیزش دی‌ماه حک شد، نمونه‌ی کوچکی از «پراکسیس» خیزش سیاسی و جنبش اجتماعی است که پیامد آن سنگ گوری بر پروژه‌ی اصلاح‌طلبی رژیم بود. نمونه‌ی دیگرْ طرح خواسته‌ی کارگری و نقش پیشروان جنبش کارگری هفت‌تپه در شعار «نان، کار، آزادی، اداره شورایی» بود که در آستانه‌ی خیزش دی‌ماه در فضای سیاسی برجسته شد. کنش مشخص «دختران خیابان انقلاب» در کنار زدن حجاب اجباری که نمادی از خواست دائمی جنبش زنان علیه آپارتاید جنسیتی است نیز در متن خیزش دی‌ماه صورت گرفت. همان‌گونه که پیش‌تر گفته شد از خیزش‌های پسادی‌ماه تا جنبش انقلابی ژینا/مهسا بخش معینی از پیشروان و رهبران عملی در خیابان شکل گرفته است. ‌آن‌ها بسترسازِ تداوم و پیوستگی خیزش‌ها بوده و هستند. هم‌گرایی این حلقه از پیشروان جنبش‌های اجتماعی و خیزش‌های سیاسی و در مرکز آن پیشروان عملی در خیابان محور و برسازنده‌ی خودسازماندهی و رهبری از پایین در جنبش‌انقلابی کنونی است.

پیشروان جنبش‌های اجتماعی و خیزش‌های سیاسی می‌توانند مداری از خواسته‌های خیزش‌ها و جنبش‌های اجتماعی از دی‌ماه تا کنون همانند  «کار، نان، آزادی» و یا «زن، زندگی و آزادی» و دیگر خواسته‌های پیشرو را محور سازمان‌یابی خود و جنبش قرار داده و با ایجاد شبکه‌هایی از همکاری زمینه‌ی خودسازمان‌یابی در جنبش را گسترش دهد. نوعی از شبکه‌های همکاری که متناسب با فرآیند رشد جنبش رابطه‌‌ی آنها منسجم‌تر شده و به سطح بالاتری فرا بروید.

چپ اجتماعی و سوسیالیستی در جامعه‌ی ما اگرچه پراکنده اما نیروی وسیعی در عرصه‌های مختلف اجتماعی است و در اشکال متنوعی نظیر پیشروان جنبش‌کارگری و دانشجویی، محافل و نهادهای گوناگون چپ، گردانندگان پلاتفرم‌ها و تارنماهای سیاسی، نظری، حلقه‌های بزرگی از چپ که در عرصه‌های آزادی‌ بیان، فرهنگ و هنر فعالیت می‌کنند، چپ سازمان‌یافته، که اغلب بازمانده‌ی سازمان‌های سرکوب‌شده در دهه‌ شصت هستند، همه و همه می‌توانند در این نوع از هم‌گرایی چندراستایی مشارکت داشته باشند.

چپ انقلابی و سوسیالیست که جنبش طبقاتی کارگران را محور هر نوع تحول برای رهایی از استثمار و ستم قرار می‌دهد، دموکراسی مستقیم و شورایی را به عنوان ساخت سیاسی بدیل دنبال می‌کند، می‌تواند در برساختن این نوع از خودسازمان‌دهی و رهبری نقش مؤثری داشته باشد.

 

لینک کوتاه شده در سایت «نقد»: https://wp.me/p9vUft-3bg 

Sunday, July 19, 2020

3399. The China-Islamic Republic of Iran Negotiations and the Crisis of Capitalist Civilization

By Kamran Nayeri, July 19, 2020
Ayatollah Khamenei met with President Xi Jinping in Tehran on January 23, 2016 that set the stage for the current negotiations for a 25-year economic and security agreement as part of China's Belt and Road Initiative.

The Beijing and Tehran negotiations
On July 11, The New York Times reported on an “18-page proposed agreement” between China and the Islamic Republic of Iran that may lead to a 25-year economic and security agreement between the world super power and one of the Middle East regional powers both locked in intensifying conflict with the United States. According to the Times, the agreement if finalized would “vastly expand Chinese presence in banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects” in Iran. In exchange, China “would receive a regular supply of Iranian oil over the next 25 years.” The Times adds that according to an unnamed source, oil shipped to China would be heavily discounted. The envisioned agreement is estimated to be worth $400 billion. 

The recent development is no surprise.  The process was initiated in the 2016 state visit by President Xi to Tehran and reported by both governments (for the Islamic Republic announcement, see, here). Since 2016, China and Iran have been cooperating in a number of areas including in the military field.  In fact, in 2016 a military agreement was singed between the two governments. In 2016, Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan said in a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Chang Wanquan in Tehran:  “Boosting long-term defense-military ties and cooperation with China is among the chief priorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s defense diplomacy.”

The context for Tehran/Beijing cooperation
The revolution, Islamic Republic, and imperialism
The February 1979 revolution in Iran overthrew a strategic partner of the United States in the Middle East.  Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi was restored to the throne in the CIA-MI6 August 1953 coup that overthrew the nationalist government of prime minster Mohammad Mossadegh. Soon after becoming the prime minister, Dr. Mossadegh’s government had initiated the legislation to nationalize the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (AIOC) which became the law on March 17, 1951. The Shah’s regime was key to the U.S. imperialist strategic goals in the Middle East.  The Shah was a member of the anti-communist regional CENTO alliance, an economic and military pact, aimed at the Soviet Union. The Shah was a supporter of the colonial-settler Zionist State and the colonial-settler South African apartheid regime.  He was a major purchaser of American military hardware. 

The capitalist Islamic Republic that came to power in the aftermath of the 1979 revolution consolidated power over a three-year divide and conquer policy while escalating an assault on the democratic and political gains won by the masses through a year long struggle against the Shah’s dictatorship and assault on their grassroots movements (Nayeri and Nassab, 2006). At the same time, imperialism has never given up its regime change plans to reinstall a regime in Tehran subservient to it.

The decline of U.S. imperialism
Another key factor in the past four decades has been the decline of the Western imperialism, in particular, the U.S. imperialism. In the Middle East, this has been demonstrated by the emergence of regional powers like Iran, Turkey, and to lesser degree Saudi Arabia. The Islamic Republic’s influence has become substantial in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Turkey and Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies have tried, although unsuccessfully, to overthrow the Assad regime, and both have developed relations with Russia. Turkey, a member of NATO, has purchased Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. 

Meanwhile, the United States still faces a militarily formidable Russia led by a nationalist regime which has challenged Western imperialism by first annexing Crimea and then entering the war in Syria on the opposite side of the United States.  The U.S. military pulled out of the war as a result and the Assad regime has remained in power. Clearly, emboldened by this experience, Russia is now involved in the civil war in Libya. Therefore, Russia is now a power player in the Middle East while the U.S. has been increasingly sidelined.  

The rise of China
Perhaps the most important change in world politics since the collapse of the Soviet Union and similar regimes in Eastern Europe is the rise of China in the last four decades.  The 1972 President Nixon’s visit to the People's Republic of China was an important strategic and diplomatic overture that resulted in normalization of ties in 1979.  After Deng Xiaoping consolidated his power in 1978, a push to develop China capitalistically got underway using an export-led growth strategy. This allowed China to accelerate the transfer of rural population to urban centers and from traditional agriculture to increasingly modern industry.  The average annual real GDP growth rate in China from 1860 to 1978 is estimated at 5.3% according to the Congressional Research Service.  Since 1978, China has been among the world’s fastest-growing economies, with real annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging 9.5% through 2018.  China overtook Japan as the world's second-largest economy in 2010, measured in current prices or nominal terms (not accounting for inflation), according to data from the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. It has since remained in that position, second only to the United States (For dynamic charts showing China’s growth see here). 

In contrast, the advanced industrial economies of the West have experienced a slowdown in their rate of growth since the world recession of 1973-75, with single digit, often less than 4%, growth rates (see, here, for data). 

While the rise of China is the most spectacular example, since the 1960s there has been a small set of newly industrializing countries that include South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey among others.  However, the rise of China stands apart from all of them because of the sheer size of the Chinese economy and its mastery not only of the older technologies but also new technologies. Today, China has a middle class of 300 million, just 30 million fewer than the entire population of the United States, making for a huge internal market.  China has become the workshop of the world. In 2018, China had the most billionaire of any country except the United States: 373 billionaire counting only the mainland.  Currently, China produces 20% of the world manufacturing output much of it for export (West and Lansang, 2018) while the U.S. share has fallen to 18%.  

The economic rise of China is being matched by its military rise.  In 2016, Hillary Clinton, then Secretary of State, boasted to the wall Street bankers in a private fund raising meeting at Goldman Sachs that she told the Chinese that the Pacific Ocean is the territory of the United States because it was “liberated” by the U.S. Navy during World War II. Today, the the U.S. Navy recongnizes that the Chinese navy is the dominant power in the South China Sea. 

Clearly, the Chinese capitalist ruling class is acting entirely in line with their desire to supersede the United States as the dominant world power. Part of their strategy to do this is the Belt and Road Initiative. The Council on Foreign Relation describes it as follows: 

“China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), sometimes referred to as the New Silk Road, is one of the most ambitious infrastructure projects ever conceived. Launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping, the vast collection of development and investment initiatives would stretch from East Asia to Europe, significantly expanding China’s economic and political influence.” (January 2020)

There are already 67 countries that participate in the Chinese BRI. Council on Foreign Relations has a BRI tracker that provides data on imports from China, direct investment from China, and external debt to China by the participating countries. 

The Islamic Republic is already participating in BRI. The agreement being negotiated by Beijing and Tehran is part of BRI. After the Trump administration pulled out of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between Iran and the P5+1 (for a critical assessment, see, Nayeri 2015) and imposed even more inhumane sanctions against Iran while threatening military attack, the Islamic Republic reluctantly decided to turn to China for badly need economic and financial relations. Economic and financial sanctions are acts of war in that they aim to choke of a nation’s economy causing mass unemployment and hyperinflation hoping for a civil unrest to prepare the political grounds for coups and military interventions to topple governments who refuse to bow to the U.S. dictates. That is what tthe U.S. and Britain did with the nationalist government of Mohammad Mossadegh.  It has been part of their plan to overthrow the Islamic Republic. If anyone has any doubt about the intentions of U.S. policy and its destructive impact on ordinary working people it is sufficient to look what it has been done in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and Syria.  

It is now possible to discuss the debate among Iranian political groups about the current negotiations between Beijing and Tehran.

The State Department calls it “The second Turkmenchay”  
The New York Times described the accelerated negotiations over the agreement as “a major blow to the Trump administration’s aggressive policy toward Iran since abandoning the nuclear deal reached in 2015 by President Barack Obama and the leaders of six other nations after two years of grueling negotiations.”  It also pointed out with some justification that the Trump's policy towards Iran has pushed the Islamic Republic into "the arms of China." 

Still, not all currents within the Islamic Republic support any large-scale agreement with China.  Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former conservative lawmaker Ali Motahari are among its critics.  The debate within the Islamic Republic began earlier. On July 21, 2018, Jomhuri Eslami [Islamic Republic], a prominent conservative newspapers in Iran, published a masthead editorial entitled “The Correct Interpretation of the Politics of ‘Neither East nor West’” to oppose any strategic agreement with China in an anti-communist vein (The article was later removed from the newspapers’ website but is cited here). The slogan cited was coined by ayatollah Khomeini in 1979 Iranian revolution to politically prepare an assault on the Iranian socialist groups which was consummated by 1983.   

Reza Pahlavi, the elder son of the Mohammad Rez Shah Pahlavi whose regime was overthrown by the massive February 1979 revolution issued a call of his own: “The regime ruling our country has signed [sic] a shameful, 25-year treaty with China that plunders our natural resources and places foreign soldiers on our soil.”  The U.S. State Department translation of his message referred to the planned agreement as a "second Turkmenchay" adding that Tehran is afraid to share the details of the pact because "no part of it is beneficial to the Iranian people.” Signed on behalf of  the weak and corrupt Fath Ali Shah Qajar on February 10, 1828 in Torkamanchay in Iran, that treaty ceded to Tsarist Russia control of several areas in the South Caucasus: the Erivan Khanate, the Nakhchivan Khanate, and the remainder of the Talysh Khanate.

It is a laughable irony that Reza Pahlavi whose claim to being a royal prince is due to the CIA August 1953 coup d’état, and the U.S. government now claim to be concerned about Iranian sovereignty in their objection to the Islamic Republic-China negotiations for a trade and security pact! 

The response by the Iranian opposition groups
Some Iranian opposition groups have lined up against and in favor of the agreement between the Islamic Republic and Chin before a finalized draft agreement is reached and  available for public scrutiny. Those who oppose it would be opposed to anything that would prolong the rule of the Islamic Republic as they favor the overthrow the clerical regime by any means necessary, including the U.S. military takeover of Iran. 

This otherwise politically heterogenous current extends from the pro-imperialist Reza Pahlavi and the Mujahedin-e Khalq (abbreviated MEK, PMOI or MKO) and its front organization National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) who are subservient to Washington to well-meaning individuals who are fed up by decades of clerical capitalist rule in Iran.  The latter by and large have missed a central lesson the February 1979 revolution: It is not sufficient to overthrow a hated regime.  It is also necessary to have an alternative government of the people, for the people, and by the people ready to take power.  Otherwise, these currents and well-meaning individuals would become pawns in the regime change policies of the U.S. imperialism. 

Still, blind to lessons of history some of these non-affiliated mostly middle class immigrants already are spreading the U.S. State Department slander campaign that any agreement between the Islamic Republic and China is the second Turkmenchay!

Meanwhile, those who crying out “second Turkmenchay” have been very quiet in the face of the U.S. sanctions and the recent Israeli-U.S. attack at Iran’s nuclear program facilities at Natanz and Parchin, and elsewhere.  

Proponents of agreement
Of course, there are currents in the opposition who favor the potential agreement.

Those who favor it have their own reasons as well.  Some are hopeful that the agreement will improve the economic conditions of the Iranians who have been the principal victims of the brutal sanctions imposed Washington, especially during the Trump administration.  

But there are others who theorize their support for the agreement. For example, Goudarz Eghtedari, an Iranian academic who is part of the Chap Party [Left Party, formerly, Fedaian (Majority)], in a July 15 interview argued that “in my view transition to democracy and rule of the people cannot be achieved by war and forced overthrow but can be attained only through reformism and gradual change which can be introduced only through economic growth and the increase in the size and standing of the middle classes.”  Thus, the economic and security agreement with China can be beneficial and must be supported. The Tudeh Party that was the pro-Soviet Union current in the Iranian politics for half a century also leans in the same direction although since it was reconstitutedin it has become sharply critical of the Islamic Republic.  In the 1979 revolution, the Tudeh Party and Fedaian (Majority) politically supported the Islamic Republic until they were crushed and their leaders arrested, jailed, and some executed in 1983. Those days, following Moscow, they advocated for the so-called “non-capitalist way to development” that was realy a "theoretical" justification for pro-Moscow parties in the periphery of capitalist world economy to accommodate to nationalist bourgeois leaderships from Nasser in Egypt in the 1950 to Khomeini in Iran to get them establish closer ties with Soviet Union which was seen as the center of the “socialist camp” and the “really existing socialism.” 

An Ecocentric Socialist response
Thus, the entire “debate” about the ongoing negotiations between the Islamic Republic and China unflods within the capitalist framework just like the regimes in power in these countries are themselves part of the capitalist developmental discourse. In fact, the “economic development” and “industrialization” discourse has been central to the socialist movement worldwide. Where they differed from the bourgeois discourse has been an emphasis on "independent" economic development. In light of the post-World War II anticolonial revolutions, the desire for economic development and indstrialization were understandable.  But today, the discourse of economi development and industrialization is badly outdated given that 250 years of capitalist development and industrialization has lead to the possibility of imminent collapse of the anthropocentric industrial capitalist civilization, and perhaps extinction of humanity.  To be sure, much of humanity still lives in conditions of proverty.  But the proper (eco)socialist discourse is human development, not economic development and industrialization. No one in the Iranian debate from the Islamic Republic to its pro-imperialist opponents, to its “democratic,” liberal, and socialist critics consider the existential crises humanity facing: The catastrophic climate change, the Sixth Extinction, the Covid-19 pandemic (and others to follow), and nuclear holocaust.  

In fact, the current rivarly between the U.S. and its allies with China and with Russia, can lead to the Third World War and nuclear holocaust. If this sounds outlandish, let's remember that World War I and World War II were the result of rivarly between Britain who was the hegemonic industrial capitalist power and the rising industrial capitalist Germany and United States whose economies surpassed that of Britian by 1913. It took World War I and World War II for a new world capitalist hegmon, the United States, to emerge to shape the world in its own image. 

For the brevity sake, let me conclude by citing some scientifically-based predications about the impact of runaway climate crisis and leave aside the other central existential crises.  Let's remember that the Iranian economy has depended on oil exports for decades and that to stop climate change we must keep all oil and gas in the ground (This is really something that had to be done decades ago!)

As The New York Times reported in an October 26, 2015: 
“By the end of this century, areas of the Persian Gulf could be hit by waves of heat and humidity so severe that simply being outside for several hours could threaten human life, according to a study published Monday. Because of humanity’s contribution to climate change, the authors wrote, some population centers in the Middle East 'are likely to experience temperature levels that are intolerable to humans.'”
Elfatih Eltahir of MIT and Jeremy Pal of Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles who modeled climate change in the Persian Gulf region found that by 2100, five cities—Doha in Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, Dharhran in Saudi Arabia and Bandar Abbas in Iran—would have heat waves that will reach the wet-bulb threshold, the temperatured measured when termameter is wrapped in a wet cloth (100% humidity).
"'Our results suggest that the … threshold will be breached along much of the Persian Gulf on average once every 10 to 20 years or so at the end of the century,' Pal said during a telephone press conference held with Eltahir on October 20."
Areas that don’t experience high humidity would still be at risk from high heat. In Jeddah and Mecca, Saudi Arabia, for instance, heat waves could bring temperatures exceeding 131 degrees, the researchers calculated.  (Smithsonian Magazine, October 26, 2015)

Moreover, runaway climate change will threaten much of live on Earth. David Wallace-Wells whose essay “The Uninhabitable Earth” in the New York Magazine July 10, 2017 issue was read within a week by over two million, recounts the various ways runaway climate change will make the planet uninhabitable.  Let me just list them:
  • Heat death
  • The end of food
  • Climate plagues
  • Unbreathable air
  • Perpetual war
  • Permanent economic collapse
  • Poisoned oceans
Three years after Wallace-Wells wrote this, the world is in the grip of the COVID-19 pandemic caused in part by climate change (for a discussion of the pandemic as the crisis of the anthropocentric industrial capitalist civilization, see, Nayeri, 2020).  To these we must add regional crisis. For Iran, these include fresh water crisis as aquifers are becoming emptied out for short term commercial gains.  Forests in Iran are being set on fire by “developers,” also for short term commercial gains. Still, the capitalist production and consumption model of a good life permeates the Iranian middle class who Goudarz Eghtedari views as the champions of a future (capitalist) democratic society.  Let us remember that the ecological crises we have noted are not due to the clerical character of the Islamic Republic, although who gets the short term material benefits is certainly its decision. These are problems all shared across the anthropocentric industrial capitalist civilization. 

For those who care about lessons from history, it must be abundantly clear that the anthropocentric industrial capitalist civilization, including its Soviet Union-type model and the current Chinese model (see, Smith, 2020), not to mention the U.S. and the West model of the past 250 years that have pushed humanity to the edge of extinction.  Therefore, to save the world we must transcended it in the direction of a much smaller Ecocentric Socialist society where the culture of being (human development) will replace the culture of having (capitalist production and consumption which breeds consumerism and wealth and power worship).  

This is the Herculean task humanity and each one of us face.  The global struggle for hegemony among the major world and regional capitalist powers is simply a facade of the crisis of anthropocentric industrial capitalist civilization.  So is the current negotiations between Tehran and Beijing. 

References
Nayeri, Kamran. “Heads They Win, Tails We Lose: On Iran Nuclear Agreement.” Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. August 2, 2015
-------------------. "The Coronavirus Pandemic as the Crisis of Civilization." Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. March 19, 2020. 
Nayeri, Kamran and Alireza Nassab. “The Rise and Fall of the 1979 Iranian Revolution: Its Lessons for Today,” III Conferencia Internacional La Obra de Carlos Marx y Los desafíos del Siglo XXI (The Third Conference on the Work of Karl Marx and the Challenges of the 21st Century), Havana, Cuba, in May 2006. 
Smith, Richard. China’s Engine of Environmental Collapse. 2020.
Swartz, John. “Deadly Heat Is Forecast in Persian Gulf by 2100.” The New York Times, October 26, 2015.  

Acknowledgement:  I would like to thank R. Hassanpour and Mohammad Safavi for conversations about some of the issues raised in this essay. They both shared with me views expressed by the Iranian opposition that proved helpful to me. They are not responsible for my views or any errors of commission or omission in the essay.