Showing posts with label Collapse of Civilization. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Collapse of Civilization. Show all posts

Thursday, April 15, 2021

3497. Villagers & Pillagers: Who Will Survive the Collapse?

By Craig Collins, Counterpunch, March 19, 2021

Unless you live in a state of denial you’re probably like me, troubled about the future. There’s not much left of mine, but my daughter’s generation and their children will have to survive the aftermath of fossil-fueled civilization on the ravaged, toxic planet we’ve left them. How will that look? Will democratic eco-settlements rise from the ruins, gain a foothold, and begin healing the planet? Or will tribal warlords rule the rubble?

Some folks, with the aid of renewable energy, permaculture, and other adaptive Green technologies, are already preparing for collapse by vastly improving upon the “back to the land” communes the young utopians of the Woodstock generation once created. Back then, dropping out of consumer capitalism and living on the throw-aways of American affluence wasn’t very hard. Here in northern California, the Diggers’ collective and the novice farmers of Morningstar Ranch shared whatever they could score from Goodwill, rescue from dumpsters, harvest with their limited gardening skills, or make with the aid of the Whole Earth Catalog. And, if communal life became too difficult, dropping back in was easy. No one was preparing to survive the collapse of industrial civilization. They believed automation and abundance would soon make workplace drudgery unnecessary.[1]

Today, a new generation of ecovillagers embraces the same anti-consumerist convictions. But the world has changed. Mother Earth is in critical condition. America is no longer awash in cheap energy; economic growth has flat-lined; upward mobility has gone into reverse. For now, most Americans get by with shabbier versions of daily life and cling to the hope that sooner or later progress will resume. But denial won’t stop carbon-addicted civilization from breaking down as it trashes the planet. The day is quickly approaching when energy scarcity, ecological disasters, global pandemics, economic crashes, and political mayhem will make business-as-usual impossible. Consequently, yesteryear’s counter-culture utopians have morphed into a new generation of dedicated eco-survivalists determined to live well with less and heal the planet.

Some Green survivalists have already decided to sever most of their ties with industrial society and begin living off the grid. Experimental efforts, like ecovillages and lifeboat communities, that strive to become as Earth-friendly, resilient, and sustainable as possible have sprouted all over the planet.[2] Others have organized grassroots initiatives to transition their communities, cities, and states away from dependence on a climate-disrupting global economy addicted to fossil fuels.[3]

After a year like 2020, the number of people who consider themselves survivalists has risen dramatically.[4] Unlike most Americans, survivalists don’t assume their communities won’t be ravaged by pandemics or slammed by hurricanes, floods, droughts, or wildfires. They anticipate a time when we may not find food in the supermarkets, clean water in the faucets, electricity in the power lines, gas in the pumps, money in the ATMs, and medicine in the pharmacies and hospitals.

But so far, most survivalists are short-term “preppers.” They’re preparing to weather passing disasters, not the prolonged collapse of industrial civilization. They’re readying themselves, as individuals, families, or small groups, for temporary calamities like earthquakes, pandemics, climate disasters, or economic crises. They focus on stockpiling food, water, and other necessities; arming themselves; and gaining survival skills and emergency medical training.

Wealthy preppers may try to become more self-sufficient by building retreats, bunkers, or underground shelters to outlast more extensive catastrophes. Some even plan to be ready if the banking system implodes, credit freezes, financial assets vaporize, currency values fluctuate wildly, trade shuts down, and governments crumble or impose draconian measures to maintain their authority. But short-term preppers aren’t trying to build the transitional settlements that will shape life after industrial civilization.

Unlike preppers, Green survivalists are creating alternatives to industrial civilization. They are building permanent ecovillages—settlements designed to become “thriving models of a future world.”[5] Although today’s ecovillages sprout on the experimental fringe of society, their future success is vital because the crucial skills needed to survive system failure are becoming more urgent every day. Their survival and recovery strategy calls for reweaving the relationships and relearning the skills our pre-industrial ancestors used to grow and preserve food; make clothing and tools; construct homes and workshops; generate renewable energy, recycle resources, and create a lively Earth honoring culture.[6]

Green survivalists hope humans will wake up to their universal peril, overcome their addiction to fossil fuels, and ditch the ecocidal economy that pursues profit at the expense of people and the planet. To create a sustainable alternative, these “bioneers” are committed to healing humanity’s toxic relationship with the Earth by integrating the wisdom of indigenous cultures with the most useful insights of science and ecology.[7] Ecovillagers hope to lessen the severity of the impending collapse by initiating a cooperative contraction toward simpler, more locally resilient societies that thrive within the carrying capacity of their bioregion.[8] Green survivalists believe a network of ecovillages can provide Earth-friendly lifeboats for the Titanic shipwreck of industrial civilization.[9]

Ecovillage bioneers pursue a vast array of skills like permaculture, habitat restoration, rainwater catchment, and beekeeping; woodworking, masonry, ceramics, and tool making; alternative energy generation, solar ovens, and passive solar construction; acupuncture, herbal healing, and midwifery. Ecovillagers favor democratic decision-making and egalitarian social relations that strive to eliminate class, race, and gender hierarchies.

Unfortunately, ecovillagers are oblivious to, and woefully unprepared for, a looming threat to the future they hope to create. While they hone their abilities to live peacefully with each other and the planet, other survivalists intend to stay alive through plunder and pillage. Instead of permaculture and renewable energy, tribal survivalists prize weaponry, warfare, and military might. Their survivalist manuals and clandestine training programs emphasize close-quarter combat, tactical gear, firearms training, kidnapping, and urban guerilla tactics; sniping, chemical weapons, incendiary materials, explosive devices, and booby-traps; fortifications and body armor; surveillance, short wave communication, and cyber warfare.[10]

There are several brands of tribal survivalism. But most believe the world is destined to become a battleground—a war between clashing religions, races, nationalities, and civilizations. Christian tribalists stress their religious identity and envision some biblical version of apocalyptic survivalism.[11] Others prepare to win a bloody race war or a battle for national supremacy, and some believe the survival of Western civilization is their holy crusade.

While the narratives vary, each version of the coming collapse calls for tribalists to vanquish their enemies and assert their supremacy.[12] Tribalism is usually some mixture of ultra-conservative religious, racial, and nationalist ideology. Often, race, religion, and nationality are fused into a broader tribal identity.[13] They believe Western civilization is crumbling under the decadent influence of Godless humanism, globalism, communism, race mixing, multi-culturalism, and an excess of Jews and non-white people.[14] They encourage white Christian patriots to take up arms against the global Jewish Illuminati and purge Western civilization of communists, eco-freaks, Muslim jihadists, and the invading “mud races” from “inferior” civilizations.[15]

Tribalists all share a belief in the superiority of their select group and their determination to prevail over others by any means necessary. To survive collapse, they commit themselves to a fierce battle for supremacy and control over dwindling resources. Tribal “accelerationists” plan to sow chaos and plunder their way to power by sabotaging society, fomenting conflict, disrupting governments, seizing land and resources, and eliminating, expelling, or enslaving anyone outside their exclusive racial, religious, or patriotic minions.[16]

Some tribalists intend to claim a specific territory for their homeland. Others want the entire planet. Survivalist militias like the Northwest Front, the Base, and Aryan Nations, plan to impose a white ethno-nation upon the inhabitants of the Northwest through terrorist sabotage and guerrilla warfare. Inspired by Harold Covington’s neo-Nazi novel, The Northwest Imperative, a growing number of über reactionaries have designated the American northwest as their point of retreat when banks fail, power grids go down, and the government declares martial law. The Northwest Front’s website declares, “Our long term goal is to present the government of the United States with a situation whereby the struggle to retain the Northwest becomes politically and financially insupportable.”[17]

The same territory has become a popular potential homeland for faith-based tribalists who claim to prioritize religion over race. American Redoubt is a political-religious migration movement founded by militant survivalist James Wesley Rawles. Like the white nationalists, Rawles designates eastern Oregon and Washington, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming as a haven for conservative, libertarian-leaning Christians and Jews. He claims his American Redoubt Movement, “is analogous to the Puritan exodus from Europe. They couldn’t fit in and said, ‘We’re going to move to completely virgin territory and start afresh.’…In effect, we’re becoming pistol-packing Amish.”[18]

Other tribalists, like Ben Klassen, the founder of the Church of the Creator, fuse racial and religious tribalism and deplore the notion of limiting their supremacy to some territory smaller than planet Earth. In Klassen’s words, “We are determined that the winner take all—that the White Race must colonize, occupy, and inhabit all—and we mean all—the beneficent territory of the Planet Earth…The White Race will either take all, inhabit all, or we will drown in a sea of mud races. The world is becoming far too crowded to support both us and them.”[19]

Tribal survivalists deplore democracy and have nothing but contempt for the ecovillagers’ inclusive egalitarianism survivalism. They uphold the rule of authoritarian overlords who dominate through racial, religious, or political indoctrination and intimidation. Unwavering loyalty is fostered through fear of dissent and the vilification of “outsiders” who supposedly threaten the tribe’s survival.

Unlike tribalism, Green survivalism fosters a sense of empathic solidarity based on our universal humanity and our common ecological predicament. Eco-survivalists prioritize the fact that, first and foremost, we are all human beings struggling to survive on a degraded planet. They seek non-violent coexistence between people, not a battle for tribal supremacy. Yet, by their very existence, ecovillagers’ commitment to peaceful, cooperative, human survival poses a fundamental threat to exclusive, supremacist tribal doctrines.

Make no mistake, tribal survivalists hate environmentalist “Greenies” of all shades. They believe their tribal militias need to be armed and ready to defend their way of life from eco-terrorists, climate crazies, and other “Green totalitarians.”[20] For them, global environmental crises like climate chaos and massive extinctions are junk science. They believe UN bureaucrats, eco-liberals, and New World Order totalitarians have concocted these fake threats to undermine American sovereignty and impose “a comprehensive plan of utopian environmentalism, social engineering, and global political control.”[21]

America-first tribalists consider ecovillagers part of this New World Order’s insidious plot to herd Americans into crowded “habitat zones” so that the rest of the planet can be devoted to wildlife preservation.[22] They believe Americans will be evicted from their suburban dream homes, herded into urban “hobbit homes,” and forced to abandon their pick-ups and SUVs for bicycles and mass transit.[23]

In the twisted, fearful logic of patriotic tribalists, ecovillagers are engaged in a totalitarian socialist conspiracy to rob white Christian Americans of their carbon-addicted, consumerist lifestyle. For them, it is irrelevant that suburban America is unsustainable, ecocidal, and doomed to obsolesce. They blame ecovillagers for threatening the American way of life, instead of providing a resilient alternative to industrial collapse. This amounts to blaming the firefighters for causing the fire.

The fundamental incompatibility between tribalist and Green survivalism means that the “live and let live” eco-survivalist ethic will not be honored or tolerated by warlike tribalists. Today ecovillages are shielded by the government’s ability to contain and punish paramilitary tribalist violence. However, as modern civilization unravels and government’s capacity to restrain tribalist violence fails, thriving ecovillage settlements will become targets—vulnerable to attack, pillage, and destruction.

Like it or not, ecovillagers will be forced to defend themselves from conquest and plunder or face enslavement or extermination. To avoid the fate of slaves, medieval serfs, or Native American tribes, ecovillagers and their allies will have to develop strategies to repel tribalist violence. Those who believe that today’s ecovillage experiments are “thriving models of a future world” ignore tribalism’s emerging danger at their peril. Because, if things fall apart as they expect in the not too distant future, there will be no government around to protect them.

Notes.

[1] Diaz, Tom et. al. Home Free Home: A History of Two Open-Door California Communes. (Friends of Morningstar, 2017).

[2] Litfin, Karen. Eco-villages: Lessons for a Sustainable Community. (Polity Press, 2014): 9-11.

[3] “A Movement Of Communities Coming Together To Reimagine And Rebuild Our World”https://transitionnetwork.org/

[4] Castillo, Michelle. “Why Many Are Becoming Preppers During the Pandemic,” Cheddar (Sept. 3, 2020): https://cheddar.com/media/why-many-are-becoming-preppers-during-the-pandemic

[5] In 2014, Karen Litfin estimated the number to be about 2 million, but ecovillages have grown substantially since then. The number of off-grid ecovillagers around the world, while growing, probably totals less than 3 million. Litfin, Karen. Eco-villages: Lessons for a Sustainable Community. (Polity Press, 2014): 187.

[6] “What is an Ecovillage?” https://www.nextgenna.org/the-ecovillage-movement.html

[7] Litfin, Karen. Eco-villages: Lessons for a Sustainable Community. (Polity Press, 2014).

[8] The Global Alternative Society Movement includes a variety of initiatives such as Ecovillages, Transition Towns, Voluntary Simplicity, Community Supported Agriculture, farmers markets, land trusts, local economic development and alternative technologies.

[9] Global Ecovillage Network. https://ecovillage.org/

[10] Velocity, Max. Contact! A Tactical Manual for Post Collapse Survival (Independent Publisher, 2012); Field Manual of the Free Militia (1994): https://culteducation.com/group/1051-militias-or-private-armies-and-extremist-groups/13466-field-manual-of-the-free-militia-section-ii.html

[11] Foster, Brian (aka Zion Prepper) & Calista Carole Foster. The Christian Prepper’s Handbook, 2nd ed. (self published, 2013).

[12] For an overview see: Lamy, Philip. Millennium Rage: Survivalists, White Supremacists, & the Doomsday Prophecy (Pelnum Press, 1996).

[13] This fusionist sense of tribal identity is expressed in acronyms like “ORION” Our Race Is Our Nation.

[14] Lamy, Philip. Millennium Rage: Survivalists, White Supremacists, & the Doomsday Prophecy (Pelnum Press, 1996).

[15] Andres, James. From Mainstream to Fringe Conspiracy: Examining White Supremacist Literature Before and After the Civil-Rights Movement, Masters Thesis (Western Michigan University, 2019): https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5331&context=masters_theses

[16] Collins, Craig. “Can We Exit This Road to Ruin?” Resilience (Feb. 16, 2021): https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-02-16/can-we-exit-this-road-to-ruin/ ; Huffman, Greg. “Far-Right Accelerationists Hope To Spark The Next U.S. Civil War,” Facing South (Feb. 3, 2021): https://www.facingsouth.org/2021/02/far-right-accelerationists-hope-spark-next-us-civil-war

[17] The Northwest Front Handbookhttps://dokumen.pub/the-northwest-front-handbook-5nbsped.html

[18] MacDonald, G. Jeffrey. “Secession Theology Runs Deep In American Religious, Political History” St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Nov. 30, 2012): https://www.stltoday.com/lifestyles/faith-and-values/secession-theology-runs-deep-in-american-religious-political-history/article_dda5a49c-0d6f-537b-a727-8163f6d0b28c.html

[19] Klassen, Ben. On the Brink of a Bloody Racial War. (Church of the Creator, 1993): 21.

[20] Sunshine, Spencer. “A Guide to Oregon’s Patriot Movement,” Up In Arms: https://rop.org/uia/section-i/

[21] Erickson, Amanda. “Trump’s Climate Change Shift Is Really About Killing The International Order,”Washington Post (March 29, 2017). https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/03/29/trumps-climate-change-shift-is-really-about-killing-the-international-order/

[22] Koire, Rosa. Behind the Green Mask: Agenda 21 (The Post Sustainability Press, 2011).

[23] As proof they cite Agenda 21, a nonbinding UN planning paper signed by the first president Bush back in 1992. To hear them tell it, Agenda 21 poses the “most dangerous threat to America’s sovereignty” and will lead to a “new Dark Ages of pain and misery yet unknown to mankind.” Tea Party tribalists successfully lobbied the Republican National Committee to denounce Agenda 21 as a “destructive and insidious scheme” meant to impose a “socialist-communist redistribution of wealth” on America. See: Koire, Rosa. Behind the Green Mask: Agenda 21 (The Post Sustainability Press, 2011). In reality Agenda 21 is not even a treaty. It has no legal force, no enforcement mechanisms, no penalties, and no significant funding. It is not even a top-down recommendation. It merely encourages communities around the world to come up with their own solutions to overpopulation, pollution, poverty, and resource depletion. It is a feel-good guide that cannot force anyone, anywhere, to do anything. And it has succeeded in forcing people to do just that—absolutely nothing.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

1357. NASA-Funded Study Postulates Collapse of Industrial Civilization

By Nafeez Ahmed, The Guardian, March 14, 2014
Safa Motesharrei
A new study sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution.
Noting that warnings of 'collapse' are often seen to be fringe or controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that "the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history." Cases of severe civilisational disruption due to "precipitous collapse - often lasting centuries - have been quite common."
The research project is based on a new cross-disciplinary 'Human And Nature DYnamical' (HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa Motesharrei of the US National Science Foundation-supported National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, in association with a team of natural and social scientists. The study based on the HANDY model has been accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed Elsevier journal, Ecological Economics.
It finds that according to the historical record even advanced, complex civilisations are susceptible to collapse, raising questions about the sustainability of modern civilisation:
"The fall of the Roman Empire, and the equally (if not more) advanced Han, Mauryan, and Gupta Empires, as well as so many advanced Mesopotamian Empires, are all testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent."
By investigating the human-nature dynamics of these past cases of collapse, the project identifies the most salient interrelated factors which explain civilisational decline, and which may help determine the risk of collapse today: namely, Population, Climate, Water, Agriculture, and Energy.
These factors can lead to collapse when they converge to generate two crucial social features: "the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity"; and "the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or "Commoners") [poor]" These social phenomena have played "a central role in the character or in the process of the collapse," in all such cases over "the last five thousand years."
Currently, high levels of economic stratification are linked directly to overconsumption of resources, with "Elites" based largely in industrialised countries responsible for both:
"... accumulated surplus is not evenly distributed throughout society, but rather has been controlled by an elite. The mass of the population, while producing the wealth, is only allocated a small portion of it by elites, usually at or just above subsistence levels."
The study challenges those who argue that technology will resolve these challenges by increasing efficiency:
"Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both per capita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, the increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use."
Productivity increases in agriculture and industry over the last two centuries has come from "increased (rather than decreased) resource throughput," despite dramatic efficiency gains over the same period.
Modelling a range of different scenarios, Motesharri and his colleagues conclude that under conditions "closely reflecting the reality of the world today... we find that collapse is difficult to avoid." In the first of these scenarios, civilisation:
".... appears to be on a sustainable path for quite a long time, but even using an optimal depletion rate and starting with a very small number of Elites, the Elites eventually consume too much, resulting in a famine among Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society. It is important to note that this Type-L collapse is due to an inequality-induced famine that causes a loss of workers, rather than a collapse of Nature."
Another scenario focuses on the role of continued resource exploitation, finding that "with a larger depletion rate, the decline of the Commoners occurs faster, while the Elites are still thriving, but eventually the Commoners collapse completely, followed by the Elites."
In both scenarios, Elite wealth monopolies mean that they are buffered from the most "detrimental effects of the environmental collapse until much later than the Commoners", allowing them to "continue 'business as usual' despite the impending catastrophe." The same mechanism, they argue, could explain how "historical collapses were allowed to occur by elites who appear to be oblivious to the catastrophic trajectory (most clearly apparent in the Roman and Mayan cases)."
Applying this lesson to our contemporary predicament, the study warns that:
"While some members of society might raise the alarm that the system is moving towards an impending collapse and therefore advocate structural changes to society in order to avoid it, Elites and their supporters, who opposed making these changes, could point to the long sustainable trajectory 'so far' in support of doing nothing."
However, the scientists point out that the worst-case scenarios are by no means inevitable, and suggest that appropriate policy and structural changes could avoid collapse, if not pave the way toward a more stable civilisation.
The two key solutions are to reduce economic inequality so as to ensure fairer distribution of resources, and to dramatically reduce resource consumption by relying on less intensive renewable resources and reducing population growth:
"Collapse can be avoided and population can reach equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion."
The NASA-funded HANDY model offers a highly credible wake-up call to governments, corporations and business - and consumers - to recognise that 'business as usual' cannot be sustained, and that policy and structural changes are required immediately.

Although the study is largely theoretical, a number of other more empirically-focused studies - by KPMG and the UK Government Office of Science for instance - have warned that the convergence of food, water and energy crises could create a 'perfect storm' within about fifteen years. But these 'business as usual' forecasts could be very conservative.