Reduction of emissions in Europe does not account for imports, including from China, the world leading polluter by tonnage |
By Julio Godoy, IPS, December 8, 2011
BERLIN- According to official figures, the European Union member countries
have successfully reduced their emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), especially
of carbon dioxide (CO2), by more than 15 percent since 1990, thus more than
fulfilling their commitments under the Kyoto protocol.
However, these
figures only consider the emissions from industrial and other domestic economic
activities, ignoring considerations such as the EU’s consumption of imports
from pollution-heavy, rising economies like the People’s Republic of China,
South Africa, India, and Brazil.
If international
trade and local consumption of imported goods were accounted for, the CO2
emissions in Germany and France would have increased by more than 20 percent
during the last 20 years, according to two new studies.
Similar estimations
are true for all the major industrialised countries.
In order to
calculate the real impact of ‘carbon leakage’ – increased emissions of CO2 in
one country as a direct result of decreased emissions in another – scientists
are now suggesting using a country's ‘carbon footprint’ as the most reliable
indicator.
"The carbon
footprint as a basis for a country’s climate policy obligations includes all
emissions for which the consumers in that country are responsible," Gabriel
Felbermayr, professor of economics at the university of Munich and author of a
recent study on carbon footprints for the Leibniz Institute for
Economic Research (IFO, in German), told IPS.
"If a country
engages in international trade, then its carbon footprint (changes according)
to the ‘CO2 content’ of its trade," Felbermayr told IPS.
The ‘CO2 content of
a good’ measures total emissions resulting from the production of a commodity.
It takes account not only of the direct emissions generated in each sector but
also emissions in upstream stages of production.
The Kyoto protocol
established that industrialised countries should reduce GHG emissions by more
than five percent from their 1990 levels.
Officially, Germany
has complied with this stipulation, cutting GHG emissions by 21 percent since
1990. France also claims to have reduced emissions by almost 11 percent over the
last two decades.
But Felbermayr and
other scientists evaluating the impact of consumption of imported goods in both
countries call such figures "fallacious."
"Industrialised
countries document CO2 savings but in reality emissions have only been shifted
abroad, leaving total world emissions about the same," Felbermayr, whose
study analysed the CO2 emissions and carbon footprints of 40 countries from
2005-2007, explained.
"Up to now,
climate agreements – particularly the Kyoto protocol – measured a country’s
contribution to global climate change by its CO2 emissions," Felbermayr
added.
However, any
reductions recorded under this system of measurement were likely illusory.
"From 2002 to
2007 France reported stagnant or slightly decreasing CO2 emissions. In
contrast, its per capita footprint increased continuously over the same
period."
According to
traditional evaluations of CO2 emissions, China is now considered the world's
worst polluter, just ahead of the U.S. But using the carbon footprint
indicator, Felbermayr concludes that the U.S. continues to be the largest
carbon emitter.
Carbone 4, a French
bureau specialising in measuring CO2 emissions, reached a similar conclusion using its latest indicator ‘Eco2climat’, which
measures all of France’s emissions including goods produced abroad for local consumption.
The Eco2climat of
France estimates a 25 percent increase in GHG emissions between 1990 and 2010,
instead of the 10.3 percent reduction touted by the French government.
"Our indicator
estimates the actual emissions which correspond to the standard of living in
France," Jean-Marc Jancovici, director and co-founder of Carbone 4, told
IPS.
"Official
figures suggest that France is on the right track to reducing emissions without
putting any constraint upon our consumption," Jancovici added. "We at
Carbone 4 have proved that such a claim is wrong."
Felbermayr
estimates that in Germany, the discrepancy between footprint and emissions has
also grown steadily.
"In 2002 only
2.5 percent of CO2 consumption was imported from abroad," he said.
"By 2007 imported emissions had shot up to nine percent."
Such growth
corresponds to emissions caused by increasing industrial production in strong
emerging economies, especially China and South Africa. According to Felbermayr’s
study, China exports more than 27 percent of its emissions, followed by South
Africa (20.7 percent) and the Czech Republic (19.4)
By the same token,
the largest net importers of emissions are Switzerland (58.4 percent), Sweden
(36 percent), Norway (33 percent), the Netherlands (32 percent) and France (26
percent).
The two studies
echo warnings issued repeatedly by the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD), first in 2005 and then again in 2009.
"Efforts to
mitigate GHG emissions will be less effective in reducing global emissions if
countries with emission commitments relocate their carbon-intensive production
activities to countries without such commitments – particularly if production
in the latter countries is GHG-intensive," according to a 2005 research study
by the OECD.
At the time of
publication this study revealed, "Consumption-based CO2 emissions of (the
30 most industrialised) countries were, on average, about 16 percent higher in
2005 than conventional measures of production-based emissions suggest."
By 2009, the
situation had worsened, and the OECD insisted that the "relocation process
(of industrial activities) and increased ‘carbon trade’ appear to be contrary
to the GHG reductions envisioned in international agreements."
But these warnings
went unheard, leading scientists like Felbermayr now to call for using carbon
footprints, rather than national estimates of GHG emissions, as an indicator
for international reduction agreements.
"To prevent
carbon leakage, a future climate agreement should be oriented on the carbon
footprint instead of domestic emissions," he said.
"The carbon
footprint can be very precisely targeted by the state levying a consumer tax on
the CO2 content of a good," he said.
In
addition, "the use of the carbon footprint could also increase the
willingness of China and India to participate in international climate change
agreements," such as the agreement currently being discussed in Durban,
South Africa.
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