Tuesday, March 18, 2025

3665. Development and the Future of Humanity

By Kamran Nayeri, March 18, 2025



Editor's Note: This essay is a free translation from an article I published in Critique of Political Economy (نقد اقتصاد سیاسی), a socialist website edited by Parviz Sedaghat, in Iran on March 10, 2025. The essay is based on a presentation I was invited to give to an online meeting of Left Co-Thinking (هم گرایی چپ) on "Development and Ecosystems" on January 29, 2025. I would like to thanks all of them for providing me with a forum to share my ideas on these questions and to extented my critical appraisal of the Marxist theory in light of the problems of the 21th century. KN 


The Context and Content of the Development Discussion

Economic growth is the rate of increase in GDP in a country or group of countries over a given time frame usually a year. For example, Africa's economic growth from 2013 to 2023 was 2.3 percent, in Europe it was just 1 percent, and in North America it was 1.2 percent. As a result, Africa grew faster than Europe and America during this period. But it is commonly agreed that the economy is more developed in Europe and North America. Economic development is the transformation of the structure of the economy. In the process of development, a country usually move from its traditional economy, which is mainly based on agriculture, to an industrial economy, and finally to an economy in which the service sector becomes larger than the agricultural and industrial sectors. As the service sector grows, the growth of labor productivity slows down because of slower economic growth as the service sector does not lend itself to automation as well as manufacturing.

Recent discussions of economic development began with the collapse of colonialism after World War II, which led to the independence of dozens of countries, and has been largely sidelined after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of neoliberalism.

Among the central issues of this discussion were the concept and causes of economic backwardness and how to develop and industrialize. In this discussion، the role of the world market was prominent which in the 1950s and 1960s led to the establishment  of the Dependency School of dependence which includes a set of national and socialist theories of underdevelopment  and dependent development.  Politically, the Dependency School led to Third Worldism, which focused on colonialism and imperialism as the cause of underdevelopment. It entailed support for national, anti-colonial, and anti-imperialist revolutions. These theories were in line with the growth of nationalism in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia in the 1950s and 1960s. 

In the context of the Cold War between Western imperialism and the Soviet Union and the creation of a bipolar world, Third Worldism led to the establishment of the non-aligned movement that encompassed 120 countries. The climax of this movement was in 1979, when Fidel Castro was elected as its president and demanded a New World Order, whose political and economic content was unclear. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the temporary polarization of the world, this movement subsided. 

One of the most prominent examples of dependency theories is the Terms of Trade theory of the Argentine nationalist economist Raul Prebisch who considered backwardness to be due to the inappropriate ratio of the price index of export goods to the price index of imported goods. Arghiri Emmanuel proposed the theory of unequal exchange   that Maintained relatively high wages in industrialized countries cause distortion in value and price of goods in the world market in a way that transferred socially necessary labor (value) from underdeveloped countries to industrialized countries. Paul Baran proposed argued that monopoly capital was the reason for backwardness. 

W. Arthur Lewis, an economist born in San Lucia, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics, showed in the essay "Economic Development with Unlimited Supply of Labor" (1954) that economic growth is accelerated and development is possible by creating jobs in the industrial sector because of its far higher productivity of labor than in traditional agriculture. Nicholas Kaldor, Hungarian economist who immigrated to England, proposed his theory of cumulative causation in which he underscores the importance of the industrial sector in technical change and innovation, hence economic development and growth.

The tension between these theories and dependency theories, such as those of Emmanuel and Baran, that provided an explanation for backwardness based on Marxist economics, was critically considered by other Marxist economists. Elizabeth Dore criticizes Dependency School and its Marxist supporters as follows: 

"The distinguishing feature of all Dependency writers is that they treat the social and economic development of underdeveloped countries as largely influenced by external forces, namely, the domination of these countries by other and more powerful countries. This leads dependency theorists to adopt a circulationist approach. They posit that underdevelopment can be explained in terms of relations of domination in exchange, almost to the exclusion of the analysis of the forces and relations of production (Dore 1983, p. 115).”

In his book Imperialism: The Pioneer of Capitalism (1980), Bill Warren rejects the "Marxist" theories of dependency and enumerates the development and industrialization in some backward countries. 

As Baran had argued that monopoly capital, that is imperialism, is the source of backwardness, Warren who marshals empirical evidence of development and industrialization in some of these countries, argues that the problem is in Lenin’s theory imperialism.  However, both Baran and Warren were mistaken about Lenin’s theory. Lenin, who defines imperialism by the export of capital, writes: "The export of capital to these countries affects and greatly accelerates the development of capitalism. (Lenin, 1916, emphasis added). However, the monopoly capital theory beginning with Hilferding, through Lenin and Bukharin, to Sweezy are based on a mistaken reading of Marx’s Capital, particularly Marx’s concept of free competition. They assumed Marx held neoclassical theory of perfect competition. Moreover, Lenin's book on imperialism is not about the question of development and backwardness, but about the economic causes of the First World War, which he considered to be an imperialist war. 

Uneven and compound development theories about late development and industrialization have more explanatory power. Alexander Gerchenkron, a professor of economic history at Harvard University who had studied economic development and industrialization in Germany and Tsarist Russia, proposed the theory of relative backwardness and industrialization. Gerchenkron has shown that industrialization in Germany has been done with the help of banks and in Russia with the help of the state by copying the latest methods of industrial production available at the time. As a result, he predicted that this pattern would be repeated itself in late development and industrialization. His prediction has been confirmed especially in the case of South Korea (Amsden 1992) and China. 

Ernst Mandel has argued that the pursuit of surplus profits encourages industrial capital to contribute to the development of relatively backward countries, which is in line with Gerchenkron’s and Lenin's theories. 

I have also studied eight prominent development theorists: W. Arthur Lewis (Development  with an Unlimited Supply of Labor), Raul Prebish (terms of trade), Arghiri Emmanuel (Unequal Exchange), Paul Baran (Monopoly Capital), Stephen Himmer (Internationalization of capital and uneven development), Nicholas Kaldor (cumulative causation), Alexander Gerchenkron (Relative backwardness and Industrialization), and Ernst Mendel (search for surplus profits and uneven development), I have thus synthesized a general theory of uneven and combined late capitalist development (Nayeri 1991/2023). By "late" I mean entry into the path of capitalist development after the consolidation of the world capitalist market due to generalized commercial sea transport, means of communication, and finance at the end of the nineteenth century. 

Theoretical Background of Development Theories 

Attention to economic development began in Europe with mercantilism in the 15th-18th centuries, beginning at the end of the Renaissance and continued until the beginning of modernity. The goal of mercantilism was to increase exports and reduce imports to increase the country's current account. One of the tools of mercantilism was to increase foreign exchange reserves through a positive trade balance, especially due to the sale of finished products. Mercantilists required for government intervention and regulation and thus proposed strengthening the state against other rival states. Tariffs, especially on industrial goods, were among the mercantilist policies to protect domestic production. In foreign policy, mercantilism was accompanied by colonialism, and the transfer of wealth from the periphery to the developing capitalist countries in Europe. 

The physiocrats, a group of French economists including François Quesnay and Anne Robert Jacques Turgot believed that wealth came from agriculture. They opposed state intervention in the economy and considered farmers to be the engine of the economy.

These were followed by the English political economists with their integration of the idea of value created by labor in the process of capitalist production and division of labor to enhance labor productivity as the engine of growth. 

All these schools of economic thought were influenced by the key idea of Enlightenment.  

The Age of Enlightenment 

The intellectual movement in Europe in the 17th and 18th centuries around issues such as the existence of God, reasoning, nature, and humanism led to a revolution in art, philosophy, and politics. At the center of this movement was the substitution of reason for faith and dignity of people above the Church and the court. The goal of knowledge was freedom and happiness. The dominance of the Church over social life was weakened through humanism, the Renaissance, and the Protestant Reformation accompanied by the Scientific Revolution in the 16th and 17th centuries. The latter established a mechanical view of nature instead of paganism which viewed nature as fully alive (Merchant 1982; Nayeri, 2021). Francis Bacon, René Descartes, and Isaac Newton were among the scientists and philosophers of this new mechanical view of nature, which paved the way for the plundering of wealth from it for the primitive accumulation of capital, and for ongoing capital accumulation (ibid.). Carolyn Merchant, historian of science and eco-feminist writes in her masterpiece The Death of Nature, Women, Ecology, and the Scientific Revolution:

“Disorderly, active nature was soon forced to submit to the questions and experimental techniques of the new science. Francis Bacon (1561–1626), a celebrated ‘father of modern science,’ transformed tendencies already extant in his own society into a total program advocating the control of nature for human benefit. Melding together a new philosophy based on natural magic as a technique for manipulating nature, the technologies of mining and metallurgy, the emerging concept of progress and a patriarchal structure of family and state, Bacon fashioned a new ethic sanctioning the exploitation of nature (Merchant 1982, p. 164, my emphasis).”

Merchant views science as a “methodology for manipulating nature which became a significant undertaking during the latter half of the seventeenth century.” (see endnote 4, Merchant, 1980, p. 186)  

The Age of Enlightenment led to modernity, which was accompanied by individualism, scientific and rationalist explanations, the emergence and expansion of bureaucracy, urbanization, nation-states, and the expansion of anthropocentric industrial capitalist civilization and its globalization. 

Science and technology have been pillars of subjugation of nature yet in the Enlightenment discourse they are the measure of social progress. This line of thinking has been central to the socialist theory of Marx and Engels and its development to the present day. Merchant criticizes the idea of management of nature central to Scientific Revolution and bourgeois idea of progress but even today's ecosocialists continue to use it as a central part of their plan for the future of humanity (for a critique of one such ecosocialist see Nayeri 2015). 

As I have documented it (Nayeri, 2023), the anthropocentric industrial capitalist civilization, that is, the actually existing modernity, has created the climate crisis that threatens humanity and most other life on Earth. The same can be shown in the case of other existential crises: The Sixth Extinction, ongoing pandemics, and nuclear annihilation. 

Marx's socialism, on the one hand, pursues the goal of eliminating alienation from nature and social alienation, and on the other hand, affirms rationalism of the Enlightenment and its idea of progress based on science and technology while criticizing bourgeois individualism (Therborn 1996; Browning 2011). Historical materialism, which is Marx’s and Engels’s theory of society and history, considers the transformation of the mode of production and consequently the relations of production to be based on the development of productive forces, and considers socialism on the basis of the highest level of expansion of productive forces which of course will serve the proletariat in the transition to socialism (Nayeri, 2023). Even if this vision for the future of humanity becomes a reality, the result will be an anthropocentric industrial socialist civilization. Would there be any doubt that such a society will continue to fuel existential ecological crises and human alienation from nature and social alienation? 

Is it not astonishing that the socialist movements in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America have accepted these theories, all of which are rooted in the European Enlightenment and modernity, without questioning and criticism? Didn’t Marx and Engels in Manifesto of the Communist Party (1848) write approvingly:

The bourgeoisie, by the rapid improvement of all instruments of production, by the immensely facilitated means of communication, draws all, even the most barbarian, nations into civilization. The cheap prices of commodities are the heavy artillery with which it batters down all Chinese walls, with which it forces the barbarians’ intensely obstinate hatred of foreigners to capitulate. It compels all nations, on pain of extinction, to adopt the bourgeois mode of production; it compels them to introduce what it calls civilization into their midst, i.e., to become bourgeois themselves. In one word, it creates a world after its own image.

The bourgeoisie has subjected the country to the rule of the towns. It has created enormous cities, has greatly increased the urban population as compared with the rural, and has thus rescued a considerable part of the population from the idiocy of rural life. Just as it has made the country dependent on the towns, so it has made barbarian and semi-barbarian countries dependent on the civilised ones, nations of peasants on nations of bourgeois, the East on the West.”

Of course, there are “Marxists” who attempt to “defend” Marx from the charge of European centrism.(Anderson 2022). However, is there any doubt that such views expressed by Marx and Engels derive directly from the Enlightenment thinking on humanism, history, and progress of nations? Are these views also expressed by a section of Social Democracy in of the Second International that argued European colonialism has a progressive historical role and proposed adoption of socialist colonial policies (Lenin 1907). 

Didn't Nietzsche (see Klaire, n.d.), Tolstoy (In War and Peace; Moran, 2024), and Gandhi (Perrett 2015) critique modernity?  Non-Marxist thinkers (e.g., see Ronald 2004; for a review see Nayeri in 2014) have also criticized the central idea of progress.

Getting back to the theories of capitalist development, Adam Smith (1776) in The Wealth of Nations argued for accumulation of capital, hence capitalist development, through division of labor. Still, in his The Theory of Moral Sentiments (1759) Smith throw light one the feelings of individuals and the need for a theory of ethics. While criticizing political economy, Marx himself identified wealth not by accumulation of use-value, but by expansion of free time. Still, in Marx's theory of socialism free time is made possible by increasing productivity of labor based on greater division of labor. This runs counter with Marx’s view of socialism as a self-managed society of direct produced producers (Nayeri 2025). The more industrialized and complex a society, the heavier would  the weight of bureaucrats and technocrats be which undermine the potential for socialist democracy. 

The revolutions of the twentieth century that considered socialism as their goal took place in the periphery of the capitalist world market and were immediately confronted with the need for economic development and industrialization. Today, these countries openly pursue a capitalist economy, or at least a market economy controlled by the Communist Party (Nayeri, 2024). There can be no doubt that these countries also are contributing to the existential crises caused by the anthropocentric industrial capitalist civilization. 

As de-alienation and human development are central concerns in Marx’s view of socialism, let us turn to Native American culture for some clues.

Human Development and De-Alienation from Nature

The philosophy of life among Native American thinkers is fundamentally different from the attitude of modernity. Of course, the cultures of different groups of Indians are different, but they are all derived from ecocentrism of hunter-gatherers in which life is consciously linked to the rest of the ecosystem. Let us consider the philosophic outlook of John Fire Lame Deer (1976). In his conversations with Richard Erdoes, Lame Deere (1903-1976) who was the holy man of Sioux nation explained  his philosophy of life. Erdoes then edited and published it as a book at the time of Lame Deer death. Lame Deer contrasts their view of life with those of white culture. Native American culture is built around concrete symbols. Sitting by the fire where a pot of soup is being cooked, Lame Deer says:

"I'm an Indian. I think about ordinary, common things like this pot.  The boiling water comes from the rain cloud. It represents the sky. The fire comes from the sun that warms us all-men, animals, tress. The meat stands for the four-legged creatures, our animal brothers who gave [us] themselves so we should live. The steam is living breath. It was water; now it goes up to the sky and becomes a cloud again. These things are sacred. Looking at the pot full of good soup, I am thinking now, in this simple manner, Wakan Tanka [sacred spirit] takes care of me. We Sioux spend a lot of time thinking about everyday things, which in our mind are mixed up with the spiritual. We see in the world around us many symbols that teach us the meaning of life. We have a saying that the white man sees so little, he must see with only one eye. We see a lot that you no longer notice. You could notice if you wanted but you are usually too busy. We Indians live in a world of symbols and images where the spiritual and the commonplace are one. To you, symbols are just words, spoken or written in a book. To us they are part of nature, rain, stones, trees, animals, even little insects like ants and grasshoppers. We try to understand them not with the head but with the heart, and we need no more than a hint to give us meaning (Lame Deer and Erdoes 1972, pp. 96-97).”

Lame Deer refers to the slang used by radicalized white youth in the 1960s when they called their parents and those who believed in the dominant culture in society as "straight." In the same way, he says that white culture is a square rectangle. Everything from buildings to furniture and tools has sharp corners that are good for mass production. In Native Indian culture everything is round as they are in nature. 

Biologists Heather Leying and Brett Weinstein (2022), in their book A Hunter-Gatherer Guide for the 21st Century: Evolution and the Challenges of Modern Life provide an evolutionary overview of human history and argue that human brain was formed during the 2.5 million years of evolution of our ancestors to deal with the challenges of their time as hunter-gatherers. However, our brain has not evolved since modernity got underway to prepare us for the   modern life, especially in the period since the Industrial Revolution. 

They explore the problems caused by this lack of adaptation in various areas such as medicine, food, sleep, sex and sexuality, child-rearing and family relationships, schooling, puberty, culture, and awareness. Incidentally, one of the issues they touch upon is the evolution of the symbols of the living environment, which are round in Native American culture and square and rectangular in modern culture. The first is the pattern of nature, and the second is the pattern of mass production. They illustrate this with the Muller-Lyer illusion in Figure 1. 

<----->      >-----<

Figure 1

Modern humans usually find the two parts shown to have different length. This is attributed to the error of vision. Leying and Weinstein (ibid., pp. 39-40) point out that people who live in hunter-gatherer societies easily perceive that each part of the above figure to be of equal length. In other words, modern humans have a poorer sense of sight compared to their ancestors. It has been known that modern human senses have changed along with the development of the anthropocentric industrial capitalist civilization. In fact, the shape of modern human brain has changed since the emergence of Homo sapiens 300,000 years ago (Neubauer, Hublin and Gunz 2018) and the brain size has probably decreased by 13% in the last 100,000 years (Fox-Skelly 2024). Of course, these findings must not be surprising since  we know that the brains of all domesticated animals have shrunk and changed because the challenges of domesticated life are different from that of wildlife (Scott, 2017: pp. 80-81). By domesticating other creatures, we humans have also domesticated ourselves and lost the capabilities of our ancestors (Barker 2006, pp. 38-39). 

As a result, civilization, especially anthropocentric industrial capitalist civilization, has deprived us of some capabilities. 

Development and the Future of Humanity

Getting back to economic development, in recent years new models have been proposed with a sustainable development strategy that incorporates economic growth of all social groups along with environmental protection. Two examples are the donut economy and the circular economy. Kate Rawort’s (2017) donut economy is a detailed explanation of a donut-shaped diagram. In the inner circle, the basic needs of human beings are stipulated, and in the outer circle of donut, there are ecological boundaries such as drinking water, climatic conditions, the health of species, and the ozone layer, which the economy and society should not exceed. Rawort does not have a specific critique of capitalism, although she does have a critique of some aspects of the history of economic thought. She views economic growth with skepticism and may even be inclined to a stationary state economy model. If so, she can be considered among the degrowth thinkers. In that case, my critique of the degrowth movement will also apply to donut economics (Nayeri, 2021). 

The fundamental problem with theories of sustainable development is the lack of a radical critique of the existing social system that has created the existential crises of the 21st century. If my argument above is correct, this system, which I consider to be the anthropocentric industrial capitalist civilization, is rooted in modernity and its values, including the idea of progress relying on science and technology to accumulate wealth and power. This manner of specifying the problem is at the same time a critique of the Marxist view, which sees the root of the crisis in capitalism as essentially an economic system and sees the way out of the crisis as socialism as a continuation of modernity under the guidance of the working class. 

Some socialist thinkers such as Max Horkheimer and Theodor Adorno (1947) have criticized the ideas of the Enlightenment, arguing that modernity, instead of the emancipation of humanity, has led  to the emergence of fascism, Stalinism, industrialized culture, and consumer society. Of course, we must add to this list colonialism, imperialism, Zionism, and existential ecological crises. 

Imperialism and fascism in Germany and Italy strengthened each other in the creation and control of colonies in Africa (for Germany see Schilling 2015; for Italy see Zucci 2019-2020) Perry Anderson (1983) has argued that historical materialism is insufficient to answer the existential crises threatening life on Earth, that is, they go beyond classes and class struggle. I suggest we must have a new philosophy of life in which humanity is viewed as a small part of Mother Nature and must return to nature through a process of de-alienation from nature and undoing of social alienation. 

To better understand the difference between my view and Marxist's attitudes focused on modes of production, forces of production, and relations of production toward ecological crises, let consider the recent wildfires in Los Angeles. There is no debate about the causes of the fires and the extent of the massive damage caused by them. Drought caused by climate change has been unprecedented in the Los Angeles area. California has two seasons dry and rainy. The dry season begins in May and usually ends when the first rain comes in November. But in 2024, it didn't rain inLos Angeles region. The first rain came after the fires were put down in late January 2025. Santa Ana winds, which are hot, dry, fast-moving, blow from September to May. If a spark that usually has a human origin, such as a lit cigarette butt or electrical sparks, ignites a bush, the risk of spreading the fire is high. These are the reasons why the fire started. But why all this damage? The Greater Los Angeles is the largest county in the United States, with a population of 9,663,345. The city of Los Angeles has a population of 3,820,914, with a density of 8,300 people per square mile, but the population density of the suburbs continues to be high to a radius of 20 miles, at 2,000 people per square mile. This population density is a major reason for the high rate of damage. 

There is no doubt about the growing risk of the climate crisis, and the causes of its emergence and intensity. Top on the list of contributors to global warming and climate crisis is continued and increasing use of fossil fuels. The United States has the highest per capita emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the world at 14.6 tons per person in 2022. This is six times the global average. And, Los Angeles is the world’s most congested city; Los Angeles residents sit in their cars five days each year in traffic that does not move with their car engine pumping CO2 into the atmosphere. 

As a result, the way of life of Los Angeles residents has contributing to the recent fires and the extent wildfires and their massive damage. Will the people living in Los Angeles County and local and national officials learn the lessons from this tragedy to prepare for a better future? The answer, unfortunately, is no. All the evidence suggests Los Angeles is being rebuilt on the same basis it has been founded on. 

Thus, it is clear that Los Angeles residents are more committed to the culture they are accustomed to than to a better and safer future for themselves and the rest of humanity. Of course, Los Angeles wildfires represent only a small part of the climate crisis which attracted worldwide media coverage because Los Angeles is large city in the United States both of which are iconic examples of the anthropocentric industrial capitalist civilization. Few people know that Bangladesh, with a population density of 1,350 people per square kilometer and a low per capita income of $2,793 in 2023, is one third submerged in floods every year during the monsoon season, which has been exacerbated by the climate crisis. 

As a result, the people of the United States and Los Angeles are directly responsible for the Bangladesh floods. Yet, not only they not taking individual responsibility to change their way of life to address the crisis, there is not sign that they are engaged in any protest against the actions of the new president, Donald Trump, who on his first day in office withdrew the United States from the Paris climate accord and lifted bans on the exploration, extraction, refining and sale of oil and gas. 

Ecocentric Socialism

In contrast to Marx's socialism, which was based on nineteenth-century materialism and his philosophical anthropology, which defined the nature of man as a set of social relations formed around the mode of production and his theory of history in which only humans have agency, Ecocentric Socialism is based on animistic materialism stemming from the worldviews of our hunter-gatherer ancestors and the latest knowledge in fields such as biology, anthropology, and anthropology, archeology which have established humanity as inseparable part of life on Earth and the rest of existence. Therefore, its theory of history extends at least 2.5 million years ago when the Homo genus emerged or 3.8 to 4.3 billion years ago when life emerged on Earth, or as Big History has it to the origins of the universe.  In this view of history, all being have agency in interrelationship with all others animate and inanimate beings (remember life itself emerged from non-organic matter!). Therefore, human history is a tiny part of natural history, and without understanding this, it cannot be analyzed and interpreted to solve social and ecological crises. The goal of Ecocentric Socialism, even more than Marx's socialism, is to eliminate alienation, especially alienation from nature (which provides the basis for social alienation). However, Marx has no explanation for the root causes of alienation his explanation of alienation in the capitalist mode of production. Ecocentric Socialism traces the origin of alienation to alienation from nature that began with the advent of farming 12,000 years ago. The farmer domesticated some plants and animals to organize the farm as an artificial ecosystem protected from wild nature. As a result, control and domination of nature became the pillar of farming and civilized society (that is how the idea of management of nature emerged). 

Ecocentric Socialism is a combined socialist and cultural revolution. A socialist revolution is needed to go beyond capital while at the same time a cultural revolution is required to replace the anthropocentric with ecocentrism. 

On the economic level Ecocentric Socialism envisions deindustrialization and degrowth in the overdeveloped  core of world capitalism in North America, Western Europe, China, and other countries that have and are largely capitalistically industrializing.  In the countries of the South there is a need for economic development to meet the human development needs of large masses of the population in a way that would do no harm to the ecosystem and ecosphere. 

At the same time, economies across the world should decentralize as much as possible as self-sufficient local economes run by the producers and for human development consistent with modest comforts of life. This requires a large reduction in the multiplicity of products while expanding production in the areas of education, health, housing, and culture. Along with the empowerment of women, democratic family planning, and increasing ecological awareness, the human population must be reduced from the current eight billion in a few generations less than one billion people.

As Harvard biologist and conservationist E. O. Wilson (2016; Nayeri 2017) proposed and even identified, at least half of the planet's soil and water surface should be immediately set aside as natural reserves closed to human interventions of any sort. 

In previous essays, I have presented social forces and strategy and tactics for Ecocentric Socialism and for the case of United States outlined an action program (Nayeri, 2018; Nayeri, 2017; Nayeri, 2020). Four essential aspects are the dismantling of all power relations, voluntary simplicity, a culture of being as opposed to the culture of having, and the need to  develop a love for nature as the source of all beauties in life. 

References:

Amsden, Alice. Asia’s Next Giant: South Korea and Late Industrialization. 1992.

Anerson, Kevin. “No, Karl Marx Was not Eurocentric.” Jacobin, July 19, 2022.

Anderson, Perry. In the Track of Historical Materialism. 1983.

Barker, Graeme. The Agricultural Revolution in Prehistory. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.

Browning, Gary, “Marx and Modernity,” in Global Theory from Kant to Hardt and Negri. pp. 61-81. 2011.

Feyerabend, Paul. Against Method: Outline of an Anarchistic Theory of Knowledge. 1975.

Fox-Skelly, Jasmin. “The Mystery Over Why Human Brains Have Shrunk Over Time.” BBC.

Heying, Heather and Bret Weinstein. A Hunter-Gatherer Guide to the 21st Century: Evolution and the Challenges of Modern Life. 2022.

Horkheimer, Max and Theodore W. Adorno. Dialectics of Enlightenment. 1947.

Keller, Douglas. “Modernity and Its Discontents: Nietzsche’s Critique.” No date.

Lenin, V.I. The International Socialist Congress in Stuttgart.” Proletary, 1907.

Marx, Karl and Friedrich Engels. Manifesto of the Communist Party. 1848.

Moran, John P. A Prophet of Modern Delusions: Tolstoy’s Critique of Modernity. 2024.

Nayeri, Kamran. “Book Review: A Short History of Progress.” January 12, 2014.

_____________.The Anthropocentric Industrial Capitalist Civilization and Ecological Crises.” Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism, April 1, 2023..

_____________. “On Michael Löwy’s Ecosocialism.” Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism, June 6, 2015.

_____________. “How to Stop the Sixth Extinction: A Critical Assessment of E. O. Wilson’s Half-Earth.” Our Place in the World: A Journal of ecosocialism. June 20, 2017.

_____________. “The Case for Ecocentric Socialism.” Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. July 4, 2021.

_____________.On Degrowth.” Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. July 22, 2021.

_____________. “The Cuban Revolution and Other Socialist Revolutions of the Twentieth Century: A Reassessment.” Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. October 16, 2024.

Neubauer, Simon, Jean-Jacques Hublin, Philipp Gunz. “The Evolution of Modern Human Brain Shape.” Science Advances. January 24, 2018.

Perrett, Roy W. “Gandhi, Morality, and Modernity.” Journal of Gandhian Studies. No. 2, volume 4, December 2015.

Scott, James C. Against the Grain: A Deep History of the Earliest States. 2017.

Schilling, Britta. “German Postcolonialism in Four Dimensions: A Historical Perspective.” Post-Colonial Studies, 18(4), pp. 427–۴۳۹.

Smith, Adam. Theory of Moral Sentiments. 1759.

___________. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. ۱۷۷۶.

Therborn, Göran, “Dialectics of Modernity: On Critical Theory and the Legacy of Twentieth-Century Marxism.” New Left Review. January-February 1996.

Wilson, E. O. Half-Earth: Our Planet’s Fight for Life. ۲۰۱۶.

Wright, Ronald. A Short History of Progress. 2014.

Zocchi, Benedetta. “Italian Colonialism in the Making of National Consciousness: Representations of African Natives.” Storicamente, 15-16 (2019-2020), no. 7. 

Tuesday, March 4, 2025

3664. John Mearshemir on Trump/Zelensky Crash in the White House

 



3663. Professor John Mearsheimer's 2015 prediction on Russia-Ukraine War





3662. A Blow up in the White House: Factional Differences in the U.S. Governing Class and Cracks in NATO

 By Kamran Nayeri, March 3, 2025


Note: This essay was originally published today in the socialist Critique of Political Economy (نقد اقتصاد سیاسی) edited by Parviz Sedaghat in Iran. The free translation is by the author. 

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The blow-up of the prearranged signing meeting of a treaty between President Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday afternoon, February 28, dramatically demonstrated that the war in Ukraine has never been about the right to self-determination of the Ukrainian people; rather it has been a proxy war between Western imperialism and Russian imperialism to maintain and expand their sphere of influence. Zelensky had been invited to the White House to sign an economic agreement that Trump views as a precondition for continued U.S. aid to Ukraine. Under the agreement, Ukraine would have committed to give the United States access to rare earth minerals. Trump is seeking to secure a stable source of them for U.S. industries including electronics, space, nuclear, and defense industries. The United States itself lacks a significant amount of rare earth and China is the world’s main supplier. However, China is also the main rival of United States.  For his part, Zelensky wanted to include in the treaty language that would commit the United States support from military threats from Russia. The signing of the treaty was generally thought of to pave the way for a ceasefire and to an end to the war in Ukraine. However, differences of opinion about the causes of the war between Zelensky and Trump, as well as Zelensky's demand for the U.S. military support for Ukraine, led to a dispute between them, which I will in a moment. 

But first, let’s consider that Zelensky’s general acceptance of Trump’s demand regarding U.S. access to Ukraine’s minerals negates his claim that the Ukrainian government is an independent actor representing self-determination of Ukrainian, specifically in its war with Russia. The language and intent of the treaty and the blow up between the two parties at the White House showed that Zelensky had been and remains dependent on U.S. imperialism in the war and even before it. Essentially, the start of this war, as I have documented it (Nayeri 2022) was due to Zelensky’s insistence backed up by Washington that Ukraine should be admitted into NATO, the military arm of Western imperialism. The Democratic Party and the mainstream of the Republican Party follow the Wolfowitz Doctrine first formulated on February 18, 1992, in response to the collapse of the Soviet Union which argued for continued Cold War policies against Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, including by NATO expansion. However, Trump represents a dominant trend in today's Republican Party that does not adhere to this doctrine and in fact want to do away with tensions with Russia. The dispute in the White House revolved around this disagreement between Trump and Zelensky, who had enjoyed the support of the Biden administration under this doctrine. 

The main reason for the start of the war

Putin cited the expansion of NATO during a speech at the start of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. 

On February 24, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine in a speech in which he outlined the key reason as follows:

“…the expansion of the NATO to the east, moving its military infrastructure closer to Russian borders. It is well known that for 30 years we have persistently and patiently tried to reach an agreement with the leading NATO countries on the principles of equal and inviolable security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we constantly faced either cynical deception and lies or attempts to pressure and blackmail, while NATO, despite all our protests and concerns, continued to steadily expand. The war machine is moving and, I repeat, it is coming close to our borders.”

Encouraged by the U.S. and European allies, Zelensky has been pushing for membership of Ukraine in European Union and NATO. At the of Munich Security Conference on February 19, 2022, five days before the Russian invasion, he asked  once again for NATO membership. 

Founded in 1949 with 12 member states, it was a critical part of Western imperialism’s Cold War against the Soviet Union.  In response, the Soviet Union and seven other Eastern Bloc self-proclaimed socialist republics of Central and Eastern Europe formed Warsaw Pact military alliance in May 1955. 

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Warsaw Pact was also dissolved. Still, the United States not only did not dissolve NATO, but also expanded it to the borders of Russia and even used it in its occupation and war in Afghanistan. NATO today is the armed arm of Western imperialism. This anti-Russian policy is as Wolfowitz Doctrine that was formulated after the collapse of the Soviet Union (Goldgeier 2016). A number of American foreign policy experts, including John Mearsheimer (2019), an American political scientist and international relations scholar had warned that this doctrine was particularly dangerous in Ukraine, where the U.S. in 2014 manufactured the overthrow of Viktor Fedorovych Yanukovych, pro-Russia president.

Biden's foreign policy was in continuation of Wolfowitz Doctrine in n the Ukraine war as the U.S. gave full political, diplomatic, and military support to Zelensky. The US goal was to isolate Russia politically and inflict economic and military damage on it under the guise of defending democracy and confronting Putin painted as a threat to all of Europe. The Russians themselves have a favorable view of Putin and he has enjoyed greater popularity in Russia than his contemporary U.S. presidents have had in their country (Statistica, February 24, 2024).

The United States and NATO have been involved in all strategic aspects of the Ukraine war, and the United States has mainly provided advanced weapons to the Ukrainian army ( see the list of US military assistance provided by the State Department (State Department , January 20, 2025). To ensure public support, Zelensky was provided with numerous opportunities to attend policy forums in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Zelensky, in turn, claimed that his country was being attacked and occupied by “unprovoked” Russia and requested numerous assistance, especially military assistance with increasingly advanced and aggressive weapons. Then Biden and his European allies in NATO provided what Zelensky had asked for. In this way, the war in Ukraine continued with the U.S. and NATO providing Ukraine with strategic guidance and intelligence and arms while the Ukrainians did the fighting and dying. All doors to diplomatic solution to the war , Ukraine in this war were shut donw as Putin was demonized as another Hitler and a menace to world peace. 

In  the U.S. policy circles there has never been a unanimous agreement on Wolfowitz Doctrine. A small group of Republicans in the US Congress preferred what has been termed by their opponent as isolationism. Instead, imperialist “internationalism” that required U.S. military intervention around the world had the upper hand with influential Democrats being its main proponents (Stephenson 2023). 

Trump is seeking to reshape U.S. foreign policy that combined deliberate and blatant threat of use of economic and military power on the one hand  and on the other attempts to reduce tensions with adversaries as he did with North Korea.  resolve regional crises. He also wants to de-escalate tensions with Russia.

On February 13, Trump called for talks with Russia and China on nuclear disarmament, citing the "enormous costs and dangers of nuclear weapons" (Ruiz, Lucas and Geoff Wilson). It is clear that such negotiations, whether on nuclear disarmament or on the Ukrainian war with Russia and China were not even conceivable with Democrats during the Biden presidency .

The differences between these two wings of American imperialism are also visible in the economic arena. Democrats want economic modernization based on new industries and technologies that rely on greater capitalist state intervention in the economy. Republicans oppose state intervention in the economy, and Trump, in his second term, has pursued efforts to shrink the government bureaucracy by imposing tariffs to protect old domestic industries (Nayeri 2019, section 3). The New York Times, in some of its articles, has with some justice called these policies mercantilist.

At the White House meeting Zelensky as usual called for the U.S. and Trump to guarantee Ukraine's security. However, Trump refused had already indicated his intention to de-escalate tensions in US-Russia relations and his opposition to Ukraine's membership in NATO (which is also one of Putin's demands in any peace negotiations). In his dispute with Zelensky at the White House meeting, Trump reminded Zelensky that he was not in a position to impose demands on him or on Putin. He recounted that Zelensky has problems recruiting to his army to fight Russian and that Ukraine would not have been able to fight Russians without U.S. backing “even for two weeks.” "You put yourself in a bad position. You don't have all the cards in your hands. You are gambling with the lives of millions of people. You are gambling with World War III."

The divide in Western imperialism and NATO

After the dispute between Trump and Zelensky, many European leaders announced their support for Ukraine in the war. But the European Union is economically smaller than the United States and has a lower per capita income, thus much less ability to help finance the war, and more importantly, militarily, the militaries of the European countries combined are not comparable to that of the the United States. Zelensky even faces problems at home. Half of the Ukrainian people want the war to end (Vigers 2024). It is not without reason that NATO Commander General Mark Rutte immediately urged Zelensky to establish good relations with Trump. The British Prime Minister announced during a meeting with Zelensky that they would jointly with France will prepare a proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine for Trump. 

The dispute in the White House is a sign of the intensification of the governmental crisis in the United States, which itself is due to the relative decline of U.S. imperialism. In the recent period, every four-years when power has been transferred from one party to another, the new president has changed key policies of the previous president in the opposite direction. This creates instability for building an economic infrastructure for the future of U.S. capitalism. For example, Biden created subsidies for buyers of electric cars to increase demand to smooth the transition to an economy based on new industries and goods. Automakers have spent billions of dollars building capacity to produce electric vehicles. But Trump eliminated these subsidies and withdrew the United States from the toothless Paris Agreement to combat the climate crisis. 

The crisis of global leadership and the future of humanity

At the beginning of the Ukrainian war, I argued that it is a crossroad for humanity. The working people have no interest in this inter-imperialist war.  The Russian army must withdraw from Ukraine and the Ukrainian government must adopt a neutrality policy focusing on its internal sources of development. Scientists in relevant fields have warned that if humanity does not solve the existential crises of climate chaos, the Sixth Extinction, recurrent pandemics, and nuclear holocaust, it will face the risk of the collapse of civilization and possibly the end of humanity. However, solving these crises requires the cooperation of the entire world, especially the most powerful countries that contribute to these crises the most. The crisis of the decline of U.S. imperialism and the emergence of a multipolar world has made the possibility of world capitalist governments to cooperate in solving these existential crises. To the contrary, along with the rise of China on the global level and other regional powers, it has increased rivarly between capitalist/imperialist powers. The only hope for humanity is to create independent power for the working people throughout the world, especially in key countries in North America, Europe, and Asia. To create such a power, it is necessary to politically break with capitalist governments, institutions, parties, and create independent self-organized and self-mobilized organizations to address these crises and aim toward a post-capitalist world. I have argued that Ecocentric Socialism provides a vision for such action and transition. 

References:

Gallup. " Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War ." November 19, 2024.

Mearsheimer, John J. “ Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West's Fault : The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin .” June 2019.

Nayeri, Kamran. " A Future for American Capitalism or The Future of Life on Earth?: An Ecosocialist Critique of the 'Green New Deal .'" Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism. March 25, 2019.

Goldgeier, James M. The U.S. Decision to Enlarge NATO.” 2016.

Ruiz, Lucas and Geoff Wilson. "What Trump Got Right about Nuclear Weapons—and How to Step Back from the Brink." Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. February 24, 2025

State Department. US Security Cooperation with Ukraine. Fact sheetJanuary 20, 2025.

Statistics. Vladimir Putin's approval rating in Russia monthly 1999-2025February 24, 2025.

Stephenson, Heather. "US Foreign Policy Increasingly Relies on Military Interventions."

Vigers, Benedict. “Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War.” Gallup, November 19, 2024.