tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5261748503426298041.post2325937159041179871..comments2023-10-21T13:04:34.038-07:00Comments on Our Place in the World: A Journal of Ecosocialism: 1375. Did Natural Limits to Growth Cause the Great Recession?Kamran Nayerihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13737979861971221811noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5261748503426298041.post-60896217867133944132014-04-14T01:29:36.792-07:002014-04-14T01:29:36.792-07:00Dear Kamran,
I posted the above, in the hope of g...Dear Kamran,<br /><br />I posted the above, in the hope of generating discussion, and thinking that it was a direct response to your essay...and forgetting that I started out talking about Clugston, which readers will not understand!!<br /><br />For readers interested, there is a report by Chris Clugston - link below - which provides evidence of non renewable resource price increases between 2000 - 2014....<br /><br />http://www.npg.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/WhatEverHappenedGoodOldDays.pdf<br /><br />Johnny Rutherfordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04902212046697666678noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5261748503426298041.post-85688633348578207492014-04-14T01:25:18.046-07:002014-04-14T01:25:18.046-07:00Hi Kamaran,
While you are right that the paper ha...Hi Kamaran,<br /><br />While you are right that the paper has a world focus, Clugston definitely does link the increased NRR prices with the 2008 GR. I know you will not be convinced because he does not provide specific U.S data or data relevant to mortgage holders….but it is relevant to our discussion, which has focussed centrally on pre-recession commodity price rises. Throughout your responses you asked for evidence of 'a secular, permanent price rise for primary commodities preceding the Great Recession.' Clugston's data, as well as the evidence I pointed to in my original response to you in the World Economic Forum paper (see p.13 here), does provide evidence of sustained, adjusted for inflation, increases in resource prices, particularly oil, prior to 2008. But, don't worry, I am very happy to admit uncertainty. The rising resource costs evident since 2000 could, as you claim, be simply a temporary/cyclical blip due to the explosion in demand in the 'emerging' economies. But, to my mind, you did not adequately address Saral's response to this line of argument…if it was just rising demand, why didn't resource suppliers respond to price signals, as they have always done in the past, and provide additional supply thereby bringing prices back down? Remember – and contrary to the Suisse study you cite – throughout the 20th century there was a general declining trend in resource prices (see Chart on p.5 in Clugston paper). Admittedly the general rise in resource costs since 2000 could be a blip. Perhaps, as you claim, there will be a cyclical reduction in prices in the next few years, in which case you will be proved right. But Clugston's evidence suggests this has not occurred yet. Therefore, I believe Clugston/Saral could well be right. That is, pre GR price rises could well have been due, not simply to rising demand, but ALSO due to the effects of increasing geological scarcity. What evidence do you have to dismiss that possibility?? I think a more rational position to take would be agnostic…I.E 'maybe you are right Saral, but I need more evidence to convince me'…if you took that line, I would completely accept it. <br /><br />I think this is particularly clear with respect to oil – that most crucial commodity for industrial society – which as Clugston shows has continued to rise in price since 2000s, despite the move to unconventional oils. Also, with respect to the oil question, you should re-read the guardian article you cite with former BP geologist Dr Richard Miller. The article is actually unclear because while at one point Miller locates 2008 as the peak of oil, later on he is quoted as saying that 'the oil price has risen almost continuously since 2004 to date, starting at $30.' And yes, I know all this refers to world data, not U.S data! So yes Saral and I will need better evidence to convince you!! I have seen links to such evidence from Nafeez Ahmed focusing on the U.S situation specifically and links with mortgage holders but, unfortunately, I cannot track it down. Will do so if I can find. <br /><br />Another quick thought; I don't think this discussion is as crucial as you may think. Even if the last GR had nothing to do with scarcity (and, as I/Ted said previously, Marxist explanations were indeed central to the explanation), I think it is very likely that the next GR will be! In otherwords, we are going to run into savage scarcities sooner or later and that is what the Left needs to understand…but has so far failed too! <br /><br />In solidarity <br /><br />Jonathan Johnny Rutherfordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04902212046697666678noreply@blogger.com