By David Gelles and Manuela Anderoni, The New York Times, Debruary 15, 2024
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| Possible tipping points |
Editor's note: This article ends with a "good tipping points" section which notes how solar power has become competitive in prices with fossil fuels in the United States. It pushes the old argument that somehow "market forces" will result in outcomes that will stop catastrophic climate change. That is pure nonsense for a number of reasons. While it is true that lowering of prices of solar panels add economic incentives to install them at homes, anyone who has installed them, including this writer, knows that there are many obstacles to instaltion of solar system. In my own case, for example, the roof of my house was not a good candidate to install solar panels because of shading from nearby trees. The roof also lacked rafters which are used to secure heavey solar panels on the roof. So, I had to build a separate structure at the cost of $35,000 to install a solar system for $25,000. How many U.S. households can sped $60,000 to transition to solar power? Furthermore, solar systems will require the use of the electrial grid at night and during cloudy or rainy days the solar system does not produce electricity. A solution is to buy backup batteries. But they are VERY expensive. My house will require two Tesla batteries that have been outside of my budget to purchase. One bid was for $36,000. The lowest bid was for $21,000 but they also wanted to charge me $6000 for digging a trench and $6,000 for installing a new electircal panel.
So far only less than ONE PERCENT of the U.S. homes have solar systems! Why the Times and the capitalist politicians and media continue to promote "market forces" to stop climate change? For the same reason that NO government yet has honored its commitment to the UN sponosered Paris agreement to stop climate change. Let us recall that climate change is a world scale problem and the solution must come from a unified world response which will require unified government respose! The movement to stop climate change has died out precisely because of its reliance on the capitalist politicians. In the same article, the authors write about the cutting down of the Amazon rainforest as a stipping point while calling climate change "human caused!" But "humans" are not cutting down the Amazon forest, capitalist corporations are in search of profits!
Fossil fuels are built into the fabric of anthrpocentric industrial capitalist economies the world over. That is why to get rid of them we need an ECOCENTRIC SOCIALIST REVOLUTION. This maybe an unreachable goal during the little time we have given the planet's time limits imposed by the tipping points. But at least we are not following the capitalist corporations, their politicians and media, to extinction. It is better to fight for survival of most of life on the planet. I have discussed these issues in detail in my book Whose Planet? Essays on Ecocentric Socialism 2023.
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A drumbeat of recent reports has driven home the fact that our planet’s complex environmental systems are undergoing profound upheavals as a result of human activity.
Glaciers around the world, from Greenland to Switzerland to Antarctica, are melting faster than expected as atmospheric and ocean heat hit new highs.
New research suggests that up to half of the Amazon rainforest could rapidly transform into grasslands or weakened ecosystems in the coming decades as a result of deforestation, climate change and drought. Those stresses could eventually drive the entire forest ecosystem, home to a tenth of the planet’s land species, past a tipping point that would trigger a forest-wide collapse.
And a new study suggests that a crucial network of ocean currents that carries warm water into the North Atlantic is showing early signs of collapse because of an influx of fresh water from melting glaciers.
All of these developments appear worrisome on the surface. But, most concerning of all, they raise the specter that the planet may be approaching some of the so-called tipping points that could trigger severe and irreversible changes.
Tim Lenton, a professor who studies climate and Earth systems at the University of Exeter, said tipping points were characterized by “amplifying feedback within a system that’s getting strong enough that it can cause a self-propelling change.”
What that means in layman’s terms: Once the key threshold is crossed, the change accelerates, and a profound transformation becomes inevitable. Change begets more change in a self-reinforcing loop.
There is no consensus that any large-scale tipping points have been reached, though there is debate about whether some, on the Greenland ice sheet and in many of the world’s coral reefs, are close or have already tipped.
“Things that we actually observe happening in the climate look a whole lot like tipping point changes, or serious harbingers of those changes,” Lenton said.
The planet’s tipping points
The phrase “tipping point” has a complicated and controversial history. Scientists started talking regularly about climate tipping points in the early 2000s. They quickly concluded that some of those tipping points were fast approaching, or might have already passed.
The self-propelling mechanism of tipping points are typically made up of various feedback loops. Here are examples of how some of them work.
Some of the most worrisome concern the world’s vast ice sheets. If the Greenland ice sheet collapses, for example, global sea levels could rise by seven meters, or 23 feet, over the next centuries. Feedback loops: As the ice melts, its surface declines in altitude, which means the air on top of it is warmer, leading to more melting. And, disappearing ice means fewer white surfaces to reflect sunlight back into space, which warms the atmosphere even more.
Thawing of permafrost could release gigatons of planet-warming methane into the atmosphere. Feedback loop: Methane causes the atmosphere to warm further, melting more permafrost, and so on.
Earth’s ecosystems — such as forests, coral reefs and lakes — are in danger, too, with far-reaching consequences. For example, the collapse of boreal forests, which burned at an unprecedented rate last year, could send enormous amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Feedback loop: Fires create water stress, reducing the ability of trees to resist insect infestation, which makes them more vulnerable to fires.
Currents and monsoons that regulate the oceans and the atmosphere can slow down, warm up and shift in all sorts of ways. If the currents that bring warm water to the North Atlantic collapse, for example, average temperatures in Western Europe could plummet in a matter of decades. Feedback loop: These currents move saltier water from one part of the ocean to another. If they become weaker, less salt is transported, the surface water becomes less salty, which makes it less dense and less likely to sink, weakening currents further.
Since researchers started identifying tipping points, the list of systems that are close to the edge has grown steadily to the current two dozen; some closer, some farther from collapse. You can check them all out in a report about global tipping points that Lenton and his colleagues published a few months ago.
Good tipping points
It’s not only the planet that can experience tipping points. There are industrial, technological and economic tipping points, too. And some of them might help curb global warming.
Take the rapid decline in costs for renewable energy. Last year, we reported on a study that argued solar power had already passed a tipping point because market forces alone, with no help from policymakers, could make it the cheapest source of electricity by 2027. Similar dynamics could benefit wind power, batteries and other parts of the clean energy transition.
The new economics of green energy is leading to an influx of spending in the sector. Last year, for the first time, total global investments in solar were greater than investments in oilSolar panels, wind turbines and batteries are all experiencing startling gains in efficiency, too. And, the adoption of electric vehicles and heat pumps continues to rise as they become more affordable.
Lenton, who is writing a book about tipping points, noted that social norms could rapidly change, as well, practically overnight. (The phrase “tipping point” was used in social science to describe a sudden rush of white families moving out of a given neighborhood as Black families moved in.)
Some people believe that we may see the animal farming industry we have today as unacceptable in the future. Could eating meat every day be frowned upon in the future? Will burning fossil fuels ever become unthinkable?
“Sometimes change really is self-propelling, and something huge happens out of nowhere,” Lenton said. “It could be really bad, if it’s bad. But it can also be very good, if it’s good.”